NFL Week 5 Picks, Every Game Predictions (Straight-up and ATS): Perfect Vikings?

Did you miss me? Honestly, probably not, considering how the selection went before I went on vacation – maybe that was the problem as I was already thinking about this free time. But I’ve returned and it’s another week and that means it’s also time to release the Week 5 NFL picks and predictions.

This is the first time in the 2024 season that we will have a bye as the Philadelphia Eagles, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions have the early and first Sunday of the week off. There are now only two undefeated teams left as the Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs both face tough matchups, while there is also only one winless team left, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Will we see how the stars align or part for these teams and more in Week 5, which begins Thursday when the Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Just a way to find out what we’re thinking.

Before we get to the complete NFL Week 5 picks this week, a big shout out to Kinnu Singh, who stepped in last week with a 10-6 straight-up slate and an 8-8 ATS slate while I galloped through the national parks. What a person! Now onto this week’s predictions for every NFL game, as we have less football in the free week and we’re heading to London for the first time this year.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change. Unless otherwise stated, all bets count as 1 unit. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

NFL 2024 sets direct record: 26-22 | ATS data set: 24-24-0

Maybe it’s still a little holiday brain, but this looks like a tricky week. There are quite a few small spreads on the board, which are always a concern. Additionally, teams like the Colts and Raiders, among others, appeared to be better teams than the Jaguars and Broncos, respectively, but are heading out to face those divisional opponents. It’s a difficult situation.

Cowboys at Steelers (-1.5)

What was supposed to be a good spot for the Dallas Cowboys last week against the rival Giants didn’t look much like it. If Daniel Jones hadn’t missed some open throws, Mike McCarthy’s team (and especially Mike Zimmer’s defense) could have lost the game. But now they face a Pittsburgh Steelers team that isn’t quite at full speed on offense yet, but is without Micah Parsons or DeMarcus Lawrence.

I question the merits of the Pittsburgh offense at this point, but I don’t trust the Cowboys defense. However, I prefer the Steelers because of their defense, but this is by far my least confident pick of NFL Week 5.

Colts (+2.5) at Jaguars

On the one hand, the Jaguars appear to be poorly coached by Doug Pederson, the defense is a problem, and nothing seems to be going their way. But the flip side of this matchup is the Indianapolis Colts, a team that will likely enter Week 5 with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor on the sidelines, meaning Joe Flacco will get the ball.

I’ll admit that I’m picking the Colts because Flacco played with the Browns last year and filled in for the injured Richardson last week. However, this will never be a confident proposition for me, especially when the Indianapolis roster as a whole still leaves a bit to be desired and is on the road.

Giants at Seahawks (-6.5)

Are the Seattle Seahawks a juggernaut? We probably found the answer to that with how Jared Goff and the Lions torched them in prime time last week. However, Mike Macdonald’s defense was still an overall improvement, which in particular probably spells truly terrible news for Daniel Jones and the New York Giants.

While the G-Men defense may be able to slow the Seahawks down a bit, Macdonald’s projected pressure is destined to give Jones fits and make the New York offense a little lifeless in this game. Especially in front of the 12th man, Seattle seems to be the easy and right decision here.

Jets at Vikings (-2.5)

Ultimately, this matchup was easier than it looks for me, not only because I quickly adapted to the Vikings and their hot start, but also because of this matchup. The Jets’ defense has been a bit hit and miss so far and there is no reason at this point to believe that Kevin O’Connell won’t find the right ways to attack. Likewise, New York’s offense was simply out of sync for most of the year. I’m not sure you have to face a Brian Flores defense to get out of this.

It may not be a blowout, but I’m very confident that the Vikings can get to 5-0 at home and do so by more than a field goal margin.