Applebee’s is offering a free Boneless Wings NFL promotion. We crunched the numbers.

There’s a good chance there will be a Pick Six in an NFL game this Sunday. If so, wing lovers might want to head to Applebee’s the next day.

The casual restaurant chain is running a promotion leading up to next February’s Super Bowl in which guests can receive six free boneless wings on Mondays if a pick six – an interception for a touchdown or six points – is made in an NFL game the day before .

Pick sixes aren’t the most common play in football, but they’re far more likely than your chances of hitting the Powerball: There have been six of them in the first four weeks of the 18-week 2024 NFL season, although that includes those which occurred during games on Thursday and Monday. (These are excluded from the promotion.)

Dine Brands-owned (DIN) Applebee’s — the “official grill + bar sponsor of the National Football League” — could do well if this year’s trends continue. Last season, 45 interceptions were returned for a touchdown in 18 weeks, or 2.5 per week. So far this season, pick sixes have occurred less frequently.

If you’re curious, of the remaining 14 weeks of the regular season, 11 or 12 games will be played on 10 Sundays and 13 or more on four Sundays. The final Sunday of the regular season, January 5, is when Applebee’s guests have the most chance to win Free Wings, as all 16 games of the week take place.

To pick up, guests must make a $10 purchase at Applebee’s “Pick 6 Mondays.” The promotion applies to both in-person and take-out orders.