Tropical Storm Kirk, Isaac, Joyce. Spaghetti models

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

The National Hurricane Center is busy tracking five systems in the Atlantic basin.

The biggest concern for Florida and the U.S. is a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea that could develop into a tropical depression later this week or over the weekend as it follows a similar path to Major Hurricane Helene, the National’s latest warning says Hurricane Center.

Meteorologists are advising Gulf Coast residents to closely monitor the system.

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At 9:35 a.m., the National Weather Service reported that Tropical Depression 12 had strengthened into today’s Tropical Storm Kirk. The storm is located 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands with sustained winds of 40 mph and a speed of 8 mph.

According to the Hurricane Center, Kirk is expected to become a “large and strong hurricane” later this week. Current models show a curve north into the middle of the Atlantic, far from the US

On the positive side, former Hurricane Isaac and former Tropical Storm Joyce have already weakened and are expected to stay away from Florida and the US

Two other systems out there – including the one in the Caribbean – are expected to strengthen in the coming days. The other system is just off the coast of Africa.

Is another hurricane heading for Florida?

Not at this time, but a tropical depression or storm could form later this week as a developing system moves from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.

Dan DePodwin, senior director of forecasting operations at AccuWeather, said a high pressure system is expected to develop over the eastern United States during the second half of next week, which could push any developing tropical storm further west compared to Helene’s path.

“However, at this early stage, it is still too early to rule out any possibilities regarding the future development of a possible tropical storm,” DePodwin said.

Regardless, residents from Mexico to the Gulf Coast of the United States are urged to remain vigilant and monitor events in the Caribbean.

The next name of the 2024 hurricane season is caused by a tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands, west of Africa.

The next names of the season are Kirk, Leslie and Milton.

Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. Monday, Sept. 30:

Tropical Storm Kirk: What you should know

Location: 700 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum continuous wind: 45 miles per hour
Movement: West at 8 miles per hour

➤ Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression 12

At 9:35 a.m. EDT, satellite wind data indicated that Tropical Depression Twelve had developed into Tropical Storm Kirk with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph, the NHC reported. The satellite images also suggest that the system reformed slightly south of the previously estimated position.

The low pressure area is moving westward at about 8 miles per hour, and the general west-to-west-northwest motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.

A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday.

Steady strengthening is forecast and the depression is expected to develop into a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Isaac: What you should know

Location: 515 miles west-northwest of the Azores
Maximum continuous wind: 65 miles per hour
Movement: East-northeast at 15 miles per hour

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Isaac

Isaac is slowly weakening and is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 230 miles. Isaac poses no threat to the United States

Tropical Depression Joyce: What You Should Know

Location: 910 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained wind: 35 miles per hour
Movement: West at 1 mph

➤ Spaghetti Models for Tropical Depression Joyce

Joyce is expected to weaken over the next 48 hours and will likely become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Wednesday.

What else is there and how likely are they to intensify?

Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: A large and disorganized low pressure area over the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity.

Environmental conditions could favor gradual development and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

While residents of the northwest Caribbean and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timeline for possible development has shifted later toward the end of the week or this weekend.

Chance of development within 48 hours: low, close to 0 percent.
Chance of education over 7 days: medium, 40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands.

Higher elevation winds are forecast to favor gradual development and a tropical depression is likely to form within a few days as it slowly moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Chance of emergence within 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
Chance of development over 7 days: high, 80 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – which could be a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said National Hurricane Deputy Director Jamie Rhome Center.

The colors make it clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange being medium and red being high.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.

“If a system is near land and has potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet become a true storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Who is likely to be affected?

Tropical Storm Isaac, Tropical Depression Joyce and Tropical Storm Kirk are not expected to affect Florida or the United States

➤ Forecasting excessive rainfall

All Gulf Coast residents, including Florida, should keep an eye on the unrest that shows potential for development in the Caribbean. It’s too early to determine size, strength or direction, but “a second potential threat to the Gulf Coast is unfortunately plausible in the coming week,” Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

The other tropical wave out there is still too far from the US to determine if it will have an impact

Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared. This advice is particularly important during what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.

There is no threat of landfall from new storms in the tropics on Sunday.

Weather warnings and warnings are issued in Florida

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When is hurricane season over?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season was September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

National Hurricane Center Map: What Are Meteorologists Watching Now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

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