NHC is monitoring possible tropical development in the Caribbean next week

BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) — Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 4 storm. Helene caused catastrophic impacts, from storm surges along the coast to historic flooding far inland, even as the storm subsided.

As the remnants of Helene move away, the tropics remain very active as we approach the end of September.

Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce are swirling in the Atlantic, along with two other areas to watch for possible developments. A tropical wave, Invest 90L, is located west of Africa and another disturbance could form in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week.

How climate change is increasing storms like Hurricane Helene

As for the area to watch in the Caribbean, there is no immediate threat to Louisiana; However, it seems more likely that a system could impact somewhere along the Gulf Coast, so we need to stay current with the forecasts.

Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates an area in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico where potential tropical development is possible. A low pressure area is expected to develop sometime early next week. After that, some development is possible that could see a tropical depression form by the middle of next week, moving north-northwest into the Gulf.

The NHC currently has a 0% chance of development in the next two days and a medium chance (50%) in the next seven days. Stakeholders along the entire Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on the forecasts early next week.

Hurricane Isaac

Hurricane Isaac has managed to reach Category 2 status with maximum sustained winds of 100 miles per hour. Located in the central North Atlantic, it will move further northeast, passing over cooler waters and stronger wind shear, which will weaken the system as it remains over open water. The storm is not expected to pose any threat to the country.

Tropical Storm Joyce

Tropical Storm Joyce is battling adverse conditions, with maximum winds of 45 miles per hour moving west across the Central Atlantic. The system will turn northward over the next few days as it weakens and eventually dissipates over open water by midweek.

Invest 90L

A tropical wave designated Invest 90L west of the African coast will encounter favorable developing conditions where a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwest across the eastern to central Atlantic.

The probability of development in the next two days is low (30%), in the next seven days the probability is high (70%).

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