Patriots vs. 49ers tips, predictions and best bets – NFL Week 4

The San Francisco 49ers are dealing with injuries on multiple fronts as they return home for a Week 4 game against the New England Patriots on Sunday.

My predictions for the 49ers vs. Patriots game have running back Jordan Mason once again picking up the slack for San Fran’s struggling wide receiver corps.

Here are my top free NFL picks for this matchup on September 29th.

Patriots vs 49ers prediction

My best choice
Jordan Mason 75+ Rushing Yards (-155 at BetMGM)

My analysis

When Christian McCaffrey was placed on IR, not many people knew the name Jordan Mason.

The former Georgia Tech standout went undrafted in 2022 but was ultimately signed by the San Francisco 49ers. He played a backup role in the Bay Area the last two seasons and has already surpassed his career high in rushing yards after just three weeks.

Mason made a big statement in his first NFL start in Week 1, dominating the Jets with 147 yards on the ground. He kept it up in Week 2, rushing for another 100 yards against the Minnesota Vikings before adding another 77 yards in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams.

Now you can see why this bet is worth it. Mason has rushed for over 75 yards in every single contest so far in 2024.

San Fran has relied heavily on the run game and the New England Patriots aren’t the best against the run either. They allowed an average of 83 rushing yards per game and 101.5 on the road.

Mason also had at least 19 carries in every contest. Expect him to celebrate and play a key role in Sunday’s result.

Patriots vs. 49ers, same game play

Jordan Mason 75+ rushing yards

Brock Purdy over 250 yards

Patriots +10.5

I expect Mason to do his job in the 49ers backfield, but so does Brock Purdy under center.

Despite the team’s 1-2 record, Purdy has been solid so far, completing 72.6% of his passes for 842 yards and four touchdowns against one interception.

He has surpassed 250 yards passing in his last two games, throwing for 319 against Minnesota and 292 against the Rams. Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk are his two main targets right now, while George Kittle is also important.

Sure, the Niners may like running the football, but Purdy throws it a lot too.

The Patriots defense is allowing 244.3 passing yards per game and allowed 263 to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets last weekend. Although Purdy has never played against New England since entering the NFL, all signs point to him being a has another big game ahead of him, especially since he’s also averaging 251.5 yards per game at home in his career.

The 49ers are struggling on both sides of the ball – that’s no secret. Defensively, Javon Hargrave, Dee Winters, Jordan Elliott and Curtis Robinson are all dealing with injuries. Offensively, Deebo Samuel is questionable for Sunday (ankle), while OT Trent Williams is also questionable. CMC is still out there too.

The Patriots are 2-1-0 against teams this season, and I believe they can get this game closer to the 10.5 point mark just based on how exhausted San Francisco is.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Patriots vs 49ers odds

Patriots vs 49ers live odds

Patriots vs. 49ers opening odds

• Spread: New England +10.5 | San Francisco -10.5
• Money line: New England +425 | San Francisco -600
• Over/Under: Over 40 | Under 40

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Patriots vs. 49ers distribution and over/under analysis

• The Patriots are 2-1-0 against the spread this season.
• The 49ers have just one win against the spread.
• New England has reached the over in just one game.
• San Francisco has reached the over in two of three contests.

Things worth knowing about the “Patriots vs. 49ers” betting trend.

The Patriots have only covered the spread in six of their last 20 games (-7.20 units / -33% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. 49ers.

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