Rhamondre Stevenson, Brandon Aiyuk and what to watch on Sunday – Boston Herald

The Patriots will make history on Sunday.

Oddsmakers have pegged the Pats as underdogs by more than 10 points for the fifth time this century. The Niners are the favorites by 10.5 points despite a surprising 1-2 start due to injuries. Like the Patriots, San Francisco faces a handful of key losses, but two big differences have made them the biggest favorites of Week 4: star power and excellent depth.

The defending NFC champions are prepared to overcome the loss of All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, Pro Bowl wideout Deebo Samuel and two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Javon Hargrave thanks to other Pro Bowl-caliber players. The Patriots, on the other hand, continue to try to solve problems with edge backups at left tackle and without inside linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley against a run-first team. Once again the Pats’ fate would lie at the crucial limit, where they laid the foundation for their surprise in Cincinnati, narrowly losing to Seattle and being defeated by the Jets.

How will Sunday develop? You should pay attention to this:

When the Patriots are running

Rhamondre Stevenson failed in his third straight game against the Jets last week. If he makes it for the fourth time in a row, little else will matter on the ground.

Assuming Stevenson breaks his streak, however, he should find room against the 49ers’ defense, especially without Hargrave, one of the better run-stoppers in the league. San Francisco ranks 21st in yards per carry allowed and ranks 10th in rushing DVOA and Pro Football Focus classes. When it comes to rushing, the Patriots must first find linebacker Fred Warner, a three-time All-Pro block.

Warner has a league-high three forced fumbles and is arguably the best linebacker in football. In addition to targeting him at the second level, look for the Patriots to run to the right in key situations. According to PFF, Stevenson is averaging six yards per carry on the right side, following the lead of Mike Onwenu, the Pats’ top offensive lineman.

But even though Stevenson always throws himself into the first downs with all his might, ball security remains the top priority on every play.

“Rhamondre is probably in the top five in the league when it comes to breaking tackles. It’s a double-edged sword,” Pats coach Jerod Mayo said this week. “You always want these guys to break tackles and try to make these big, explosive plays, but sometimes the ball gets lost in the process. We always talk about being in double trouble. When people are near you, put both hands on the football.”

When the Patriots come around

Step 1: Block Nick Bosa.

Step 2: Continue blocking Nick Bosa.

The Patriots won’t get their passing game going unless they limit Bosa’s pressure, particularly working against the backup lefty – rookie Caedan Wallace or Demontrey Jacobs – who starts Sunday. The four-time Pro Bowler has two sacks and six QB hits this season and often works against opposing left tackles. He could single-handedly ruin the Patriots’ plan on Sunday; a defensive “nightmare,” as offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt described it on Thursday.

Callahan: Solve the Patriots’ four big problems heading into Week 4

Aside from focusing on Bosa, play-action figures are expected to be a pillar of the Pats’ passing game.

“I think the last few days we’ve done a good job of ‘self-scouting’ to be able to say, ‘Hey, these are the runs we’re good at and these are them.’ “The teams know we are good at it. We’re going to try to sell plays off (those runs),” Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett said this week.

Brissett, who has completed 60.9% of his passes for 368 yards and a touchdown this season, hit slot receiver DeMario Douglas for a game-winning 22 yards against the Jets. Play fakes should also create space for tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper in the middle of the field.

When the 49ers are running

No McCaffrey, no problem.

New 49ers running back Jordan Mason ranks first in the NFL in forced missed tackles and runs of 10 yards or more, according to PFF. Mason averages more than 100 rushing yards per game, making him the focal point of a run-heavy offense. Attacking him on first contact will be crucial for the Patriots’ defense, which missed a dozen tackles last week.

Expect San Francisco to test the middle of the Patriots defense, where Bentley is missing and defensive tackles Daniel Ekuale (74%) and Davon Godchaux (68%) are on pace to play more snaps than ever before their career. Behind them, Bentley’s replacement, Raekwon McMillan, failed two tackles in his starting debut, and fellow linebacker Jahlani Tavai missed a team-worst three times.

When the 49ers come around

Brock Purdy has passed for more yards than the Patriots have gained in total this season.

True story.