A massive Israeli attack in Beirut leaves the West powerless

It is time to stop talking about the Middle East being on the brink of a much more serious war. After the devastating Israeli attack on Lebanon that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, it feels like they are falling over it.

According to people who were in Beirut, it was a huge series of explosions. A friend of mine in town said it was the most powerful thing she had ever heard in any of Lebanon’s wars.

As rescuers searched the rubble, Hezbollah remained silent about the fate of its leader – before confirming his death on Saturday afternoon.

It will strengthen Israel’s belief that this is their greatest triumph yet against their great enemy.

They have mobilized more soldiers and seem to want to increase the pace. They may even be considering a ground attack on Lebanon.

This is a massively escalating action. The past eleven months have seen ongoing clashes between the two sides, albeit with increased pressure from the Israelis.

But now they have decided that they will push.

They will be pleased with what they have done, because unlike the war against Hamas, which they did not expect, they have been planning this war since 2006. Now they are putting these plans into action.

Hezbollah now faces major challenges.

Their rockets landed again on Israeli territory on Saturday morning, targeting areas further south. So they’re pushing back, but this is an uncertain time.

This uncertainty is part of the danger. The predictability of the months-long war of attrition meant that people knew where they were – now they absolutely don’t.

There had previously been hopes, albeit faint, on Friday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was at least willing to discuss a proposal for a 21-day ceasefire. It came from the US and France and was supported by Israel’s most important Western allies.

But in his typically defiant and sometimes aggressive speech to the UN General Assembly in New York, Netanyahu did not talk about diplomacy.

Israel, he said, had no choice but to fight cruel enemies who sought its destruction. Hezbollah would be defeated – and there would be a total victory over Hamas in Gaza, ensuring the return of the Israeli hostages.

Far from lambs being led to the slaughter – a term sometimes used in Israel to refer to the Nazi Holocaust – he said, Israel is on the rise.

The massive attack in Beirut that occurred as he was finishing his speech was an even clearer sign that a ceasefire in Lebanon was not on Israel’s agenda.

It seemed more than possible that the attack was timed to coincide with Mr. Netanyahu’s threats that Israel could and would strike its enemies wherever they were.

The Pentagon, the U.S. Department of Defense, said it had received no advance warning from Israel about the raid.

A photo released by the prime minister’s office in Jerusalem showed him manning a series of communications equipment in a building that looked like his hotel in New York City. The caption said it showed the moment he authorized the raid.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken defended the policy he has been working on for months. He said there was still room for negotiations. This claim looks hollow.

The Americans have very few levers against either side. By law, they are not allowed to speak to Hezbollah and Hamas because they are considered foreign terrorist organizations. With the US elections just weeks away, they are even less likely to put pressure on Israel than last year.

Powerful voices in the Israeli government and military wanted to attack Hezbollah in the days following the Hamas attacks last October. They argued that they could deliver a decisive blow to their enemies in Lebanon. The Americans persuaded them not to do so on the grounds that the unrest it could trigger across the region would negate any potential security advantage for Israel.

But over the last year, Netanyahu has made a habit of defying President Joe Biden’s wishes regarding the way Israel fights. Although President Biden and his team provided Israel with the planes and bombs used in the attack on Beirut, they were bystanders.

His policy over the last year, as a lifelong supporter of Israel, has been to try to influence Netanyahu through solidarity and support, the supply of weapons and diplomatic protection.

Biden believed he could convince Netanyahu not only to change the way Israel fights – the president has repeatedly said it causes too much suffering and kills too many Palestinian civilians – but also an American plan for that Day after to accept, which is based on the creation of a plan independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

Netanyahu rejected the idea outright and ignored Joe Biden’s advice.

After the attack on Beirut, Blinken reiterated his view that a combination of deterrence and diplomacy had averted a major war in the Middle East. But with events spiraling out of US control, he doesn’t sound convincing.

Big decisions lie ahead.

First, Hezbollah must decide how to use its remaining arsenal. Are they trying to launch a much more violent attack on Israel? If they do not use their remaining rockets and missiles in the camp, they may conclude that Israel will destroy even more of them.

The Israelis also face momentous decisions. They have already discussed a ground operation against Lebanon, and while they have not yet mobilized all the reserves they may need, their military said on Saturday that they were “ready for a broader escalation.”

Some in Lebanon believe Hezbollah could nullify some of Israel’s military strengths in a ground war.

Western diplomats, including Israel’s staunchest allies, hoped to calm the situation and urged Israel to accept a diplomatic solution. You will now look at the events with dismay and also a feeling of powerlessness.