SMM price of aluminum oxide and ingots creates tension among traders – aluminum ingot pricing follows the trend

As the fourth week of October progresses, the price of alumina on the Shanghai Metals Market also rises to the RMB 5,000 mark, which can certainly be considered the highest in the known period.

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On Thursday, October 24, alumina prices in the SMM market reached RMB 4,810 per ton, while in some provinces it reached RMB 4,900 per ton for the first time. In Shandong, Henan and Shanxi provinces, the average values ​​were RMB 4,825, RMB 4,810 and RMB 4,875 per ton, respectively. Meanwhile, in Lianyungang and Bayuquan, alumina prices rose for the first time since June 20, 2024 on October 23, 2024. The price has been below RMB 4,000 per ton for over 4 months, and now the price increase has been RMB 100 for two consecutive days set a new record of 4,200 RMB per ton, the average price in both regions.

According to local sources, China’s port supplies of alumina have fallen to extremely low levels since 2015. Spot loads were quickly flushed out, and now traders and smelters are looking for refuge with other providers in western markets rather than their usual dealers. Tragically, buyers are flocking to alumina factories, a segment researcher at Mysteel Global said earlier.

Alumina futures trading has surged in the SMM, attracting a new group of eager buyers as smelters and traders vie to maintain shrinking inventories.

“For months the market has been one accident or event away from a major price move,” Duncan Hobbs, head of research at metals trading firm Concord Resources Ltd., told media by phone. He added: “The situation in Guinea has been the trigger for further price increases and is creating the conditions for a tighter market and a larger deficit.”

If the price continues to rise, which is likely at current levels, aluminum smelters could cut production to limit losses, tighten metal supplies and support a rally in aluminum prices. Analysts hope alumina production will rebound before then, but conditions on the ground are deteriorating quickly.

Due to the increase in the price of alumina, the price of A00 aluminum ingots is also rising towards a record price in October.

The price of A00 aluminum ingots rose to RMB 21,080 per tonne on Thursday, after rising by RMB 280 per tonne. The average price was between RMB 21,060 and RMB 21,100 per ton, with the spot contract trading at no discount and at a premium of RMB 40 per ton.

The average price of A00 aluminum ingots stands out across the provinces: RMB 21,070 per ton (+260) in Gongyi, RMB 20,890 per ton (+300) in Foshan, RMB 21,070 per ton (+270) in Wuxi and Hangzhou, RMB 20,990 per ton (+280) in Chongqing, 20,980 RMB per ton (+260) in Shenyang, 21,000 RMB per ton (+250) in Tianjin and 21,030 RMB per ton (+250) in Linyi. The price range in the provinces varies from RMB 20,870 per ton to RMB 21,090 per ton.

High purity aluminum (99.99%) averaged RMB 28,100 per ton (range RMB 27,700-28,500 per ton), with a profit of RMB 300 per ton. The 99.96% purity variant was indexed at RMB 29,100 per ton, indicating that average prices varied between RMB 28,700 and 29,500 per ton.

Additionally, low-carbon aluminum cost RMB 21,973 per ton (+300). In terms of aluminum alloy ingot pricing, the variants were priced as follows: ADC12 – RMB 21,000 per ton (+100), A356 – RMB 21,550 per ton (+300), A360 – RMB 21,700 per ton (+300) and A380 – 22,000 RMB per ton (+100).