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Duke Football Opponent Preview: SMU

Duke Football Opponent Preview: SMU

Duke football will look to knock off a strong, nationally ranked SMU team in its first matchup against the Mustangs since 1956. The Blue Zone is here with an overview, stats to watch, X-factors and keys to the game:

Overall balance: 6-1

Head Coach: Rhett Lashlee

Series history: Duke leads 2-0

Last meeting: 14-6 Duke, October 13, 1956

SMU enters the match officially bowl eligible after a commanding 40-10 win over Stanford on October 19th at the Cardinals’ home stadium. The 22nd-ranked Mustangs have had a strong inaugural season in the ACC, with their only loss currently coming at NO. 11 BYU, leaving SMU undefeated in conference play. The Mustangs are coming off an 11-3 season in their last conference, the AAC. As one of only three ACC teams to remain undefeated in conference play – the others being Miami and Clemson – SMU wants to stay at the top of the conference and have a shot at the championship game. Before defeating Stanford, the Mustangs earned a 34-27 win over then-No. 1-22 Louisville. In almost every other game this season, SMU showed a strong defensive performance. This could prove to be a problem against a weaker Duke offense.

The turning point of the season for the Mustangs was when sophomore Kevin Jennings was named the starting quarterback, taking over for junior Preston Stone in mid-September. Early in the season, head coach Rhett Lashlee gave Stone and Jennings fairly equal playing time, but after three consecutive three-pointers by Stone in SMU’s loss to BYU, Jennings was promoted to the starting lineup, where he has remained ever since. The Oak Cliff, Texas native accounted for 857 passing yards and six touchdowns in conference play this season.

However, one of SMU’s other star players won’t be at Wallace Wade Stadium this weekend. Standout tight end RJ Maryland suffered a season-ending knee injury last week in California. Maryland has been a key member of the Mustang offense with 24 receptions and 359 yards this season. His absence will likely give the already stout Blue Devil defense a leg up this Saturday. -Kate Reiniche

At this point in the season, it’s difficult to find a weakness for SMU, especially against a team like Duke that ran into offensive trouble against Florida State – a group the Mustangs easily defeated earlier in the season. However, with Maryland’s injury, the Blue Devils’ best chance for success lies on the defensive side of the ball. In particular, they must minimize the visiting team’s rushing yards.

Duke has not been a strong running team this season, averaging 112.4 yards per game compared to SMU’s 199.6 yards. With a strong defense on the Mustangs’ side, the home team will have to be willing to change up their offensive game if they want to keep up with SMU. If you look at the comparison of rushing yards allowed in the Seminoles’ past games against the Mustangs and Blue Devils, SMU allowed just 63 rushing yards to Florida State. In comparison, in the game against the Blue Devils, the Seminoles gained more yards on the ground than Duke, scoring 162. If Duke isn’t careful, the Mustangs could undo the Blue Devils’ already poor rushing performance further. -Reiniche

Linebacker Ozzie Nicholas makes a tackle against Florida State.

Duke: Ozzie Nicholas

The FCS All-American winner is a recent transfer from Princeton who came to Durham as a senior linebacker. With the Blue Devils, he demonstrated a flair for turnovers and further expanded Diaz’s legacy as a standout defensive player. His leadership and experience will be crucial as the team faces its most challenging opponent yet.

Nicholas was recently named ACC Linebacker of the Week after a dominant performance against Florida State. Not only did he force a crucial fumble from quarterback Brock Glenn, he also intercepted a pass and added another momentum-generating turnover to his stat line. The linebacker’s ability to disrupt plays will be crucial if the Blue Devils want to contain the Mustangs’ offense. The 6-1 Duke team is looking to get a home win against nationally ranked SMU. Nicholas will need to continue to force game-changing turnovers to give the Blue Devils a chance to emerge victorious.

SMU: Brashard Smith

The former slot receiver has become the Mustangs’ star running back. After transferring from Miami in the offseason, Smith has seen the field in all seven of SMU’s games this season.

He excels as a runner who can carry the ball efficiently. Smith’s average of 6.9 rush yards per carry ranks eighth in the FBS. His versatility as an athlete gives him 147 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Smith’s dual role as a rusher and receiver has allowed him to break through defenses while also displaying strong skills in the backfield.

As the Mustangs look for a win at Wallace Wade Stadium, the running back is expected to play a key role in SMU’s offense. Given Duke’s elite defense, Smith will need to use his dynamic skills to score points. His position as an offensive force could ultimately be the deciding factor that allows SMU to overcome Duke’s formidable defense and secure a win. -Lucy Glynn

Keep the ball in the attacker’s hands: Sometimes the best defense is a good offense, but for the Blue Devils last Saturday, the best offense was a good defense. Duke got a tough win against Florida State in part because its defense forced four turnovers that kept the football in the hands of Maalik Murphy, even as the offensive unit struggled to be productive. Especially with an offense as strong as SMU, the Blue Devils will need to work on both sides of the ball to take possession away from the Mustangs and give Murphy a chance to go to work.

One of the biggest challenges for the Blue Devils will be maintaining possession on third down. Duke has converted just 26.8% of third downs for a first down this year and just 19.05% in its last three games. Creating chances and maintaining possession will be crucial to keeping SMU’s potent offense in check and giving the stout Blue Devil defense a break. After a slow night for the passing game against the Seminoles, top receivers Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol will look to give Duke more momentum through the air on Saturday night.

Slow the SMU rush: Led by a true dual-threat quarterback in Kevin Jennings, the Mustang offense finds its firepower in the run game and trails only Clemson and Virginia Tech in the conference in rushing yards per game. Jennings is SMU’s second-leading rusher this season with 280 yards, but his biggest threat is Miami transfer Brashard Smith, who is averaging nearly seven yards per carry.

The Mustangs could rely on the running game more than usual on Saturday without the help of leading receiver RJ Maryland; the tight end was injured last weekend against Stanford and will not return for the remainder of the season; Running the ball has been Jennings’ second option all season and will certainly be a key strategy this weekend. The Blue Devils have maintained a solid run defense this season, holding their opponents to 3.8 yards per attempt this season, but Jonathan Patke’s team will have to compete again against an outstanding SMU rushing attack.

Take advantage of the red zone opportunities: Duke will look to control the red zone on both ends of the field to keep pace with the Mustangs. The Blue Devils have been fairly efficient on offense inside the 20-yard line so far this season, scoring on over 87% of their attempts. Finding the end zone will be crucial in an SMU offense that averages over 40 points per game.

On the visitors’ side, efficiency in the red zone was the Achilles’ heel of the Mustangs’ opener and only loss against BYU: They failed to score a touchdown and had to settle for five field goals that night. Meanwhile, Duke’s defense has generally kept opponents outside the red zone overall; Florida State only broke the 20-yard line once last weekend. The Blue Devils will need to continue to excel on Saturday and make stops under pressure against a stronger offensive unit. -Sarah Muir