Experts assume that Trump could call the new election early. What happens if he loses?

Political insiders are preparing for a November scenario in which former President Donald Trump calls the election early and declares victory before all the ballots are counted.

Election Day has turned into election week in the United States. Pollsters and analysts do not expect the votes to be fully counted until the evening of November 5th, and predictions of who will win in key battleground states may not be revealed for several days, similar to the race in the Year 2020.

This year the election took place on November 3rd. Most news organizations did not call the race until November 7th.

But Trump could act quickly and announce he has won before a final result is available, as he did in 2020. Because in-person votes are typically counted more quickly than the time it takes to process mail-in ballots, it can seem like Republicans are ahead on election nights, only that hint disappears once all votes are tabulated.

Shortly after midnight on November 3, 2020, Trump declared himself the winner, even though the battles in the contested states were still too close.

The move drew sharp rebuke from Trump’s fellow Republicans, such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who called it “a bad policy decision,” and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who said he was “very disturbed “ about Trump’s allegations of election fraud .

Even then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “Saying you won the election is different than completing the count.”

Trump then filed several lawsuits to challenge the counting of votes in the crucial swing states. He implored Georgia’s secretary of state to “find 11,780 votes” to overturn that state’s result and repeatedly urged his supporters to “stop the steal,” rhetoric that Trump critics say led to the insurrection at the Capitol January 6th had led.

Just two weeks before the election, Vice President Kamala Harris said Tuesday that her campaign was “of course” preparing for Trump to use the same tactics this time. She told NBC News that Democrats “have the resources and expertise” should the former president try to declare an early victory.

“This is a person, Donald Trump, who tried to overturn a free and fair election, who still denies the will of the people, who incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol and 140 police officers were attacked she said.

“The American people have two weeks left at this point and must make a very, very serious decision about the future of our country,” Harris added.

What happens if Trump calls the election early?

Bob Beatty, chairman of Washburn University’s political science department, said Newsweek that the best clue for predicting Trump’s behavior is “his past actions and rhetoric.”

“With that in mind, he will most likely call the election early no matter what the results are,” Beatty said. “This could lead to distrust of any results that come after he declares them, and even encourage some local officials tasked with certifying votes not to do so, since Trump has declared that he will won.”

He said this is particularly likely if the race is too close to decide. By the time it takes for the final states to decide the election, “Trump will likely have declared victory and every state that ultimately went for Harris after showing Trump leading on election night, for.” explain ‘manipulated’.”

David Schultz, a professor of political science and law at Hamline University, agreed that calling the election early by Trump could trigger the same dynamic politically as in the last election, when Trump falsely claimed that ballots counted after election night were illegitimate or fake.

But Schultz told it Newsweek that there were no legal consequences for Trump’s declaration of victory. In other words, if Trump loses, he still loses.

Sylvia Albert, democracy and representation policy adviser at Common Cause, said it wouldn’t matter if Trump tried to declare a premature victory because elections are decided by voters, not candidates.

“The candidates have had time to express their opinions, and now it’s time for voters to choose their leader,” Albert said Newsweek. “We probably won’t know who the winner is on November 5th, and that’s okay — it means poll workers are taking the time to accurately count every vote.”

She continued: “We expect candidates to give voters the opportunity to have their say and to respect the will of voters, whether they win or lose. The system itself will ensure that the will of the people prevails, regardless of what the candidates declare or not.”

Will record-breaking early voting prevent Trump from declaring early victory?

One thing that has changed since the last election is Trump’s approach to early voting.

In 2020, Trump falsely claimed that mail-in ballots and early in-person voting led to widespread voter fraud. This year he abandoned those views. In the final stretch of the election, his campaign advocated for these voting methods while also trying to expand early voting in North Carolina in the wake of Hurricane Helene. Trump himself even said on Wednesday that he would vote early in the 2024 election.

“I guess early voting would be good, but people have different views on it. But the main thing is you have to get out and vote, and I will vote early,” Trump said Fox & friends‘Brian Kilmeade.

Early data shows the GOP’s efforts to encourage early voting are working. Nationwide, nearly 25 million Americans have cast their ballots so far, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. This includes large numbers of registered Republicans who voted before Election Day. Data shows 1.1 million GOP voters have already voted in person, more than the 990,248 registered Democrats who cast ballots in person.

Schultz said Newsweek that there may not be a “red mirage” because Trump now supports early voting. Then the Republican candidates appear to have a strong lead on election night, but it is slowly diminishing as more mail-in ballots are counted in favor of the Democrats.

As more Republican voters turn out early, Trump could find himself behind on Election Day, forcing him to change his calculations about how to secure an early victory. Regardless, Schultz sees no concession from the former president.

“If [he’s] behind [on Election Day]“He says fraud,” Schultz said. “When he is ahead, he claims victory and claims new votes are fraudulent.”

Beatty agreed, saying that if Harris wins in the Electoral College, there is “no chance” Trump will concede. Instead, he expects Trump to begin “continuously filing lawsuits to stop the certification of the Electoral College votes.”

“If the House goes Republican, he will also pressure House members not to certify the electoral votes,” Beatty said.

Will Trump concede peacefully if Harris wins?

The Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection has led some observers to question whether Trump will peacefully concede defeat to Harris.

But Karoline Leavitt, his national spokeswoman, said so Newsweek On Wednesday it said: “There was a peaceful transfer of power in 2020, and there will be another in 2024. President Trump has always made it clear: We must have free and fair elections.”