Study shows Prop 47 increased crime and drug use in California

A new pre-election study details how Proposition 47, passed by California voters a decade ago, has led to increased crime and drug use across the Golden State.

The study was conducted by the Manhattan Institute and follows Proposition 36, which would repeal parts of Proposition 47.

The backstory: Proposition 47, known as the Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act, passed in 2014 with nearly 60% of the vote.

• It reclassified most drug crimes and property thefts valued under $950 from felonies to misdemeanors.

Driving News: Proposition 36, up for a vote in November, would make property crimes valued at $950 or less a felony if someone has been convicted of certain theft offenses twice in the past.

• It would also increase penalties for some crimes and create criminal charges for fentanyl violations.

The big picture: The Manhattan Institute study found that Proposition 47 changed the dynamics of offender behavior and prosecutorial decision-making, harming public safety and health.

• Proposition 47 was found to increase recidivism, incarceration times, court failures, arrest warrants issued for offenders, dismissal of plea agreement cases, and persistence of drug and theft offenders.
• The study also found a significant decrease in convictions and arrests, due in part to the reduced incentive for businesses to report thefts.

What they say: “These changes have also resulted in fewer defendants participating in incarcerated drug treatment programs or other mandatory, supervised services because the incentives to do so (avoiding prosecution and significant penalties) have disappeared,” the study says.

• “And as California business owners can attest, reducing the cost of repeat theft reduces the incentive for offenders to change their behavior. This has led to an increase in organized retail theft and fencing gangs.”

Go deeper: According to the study, after the passage of Proposition 47, total crimes fell by almost 30%, while misdemeanor cases only increased by about 3.5%. The total number of individual defendants fell by over 23% for felonies, while it fell by 2.3% for misdemeanors.

• The number of misdemeanor cases resulting in the issuance of a warrant after the passage of Proposition 47 increased by over 60%.
• There has also been an increase in dismissals of lawsuits related to settlement agreements. Prior to the passage of Proposition 47, an average of 1.5 cases involving defendants who would be affected by the initiative were dismissed with a settlement. That number rose to nearly four cases that were dismissed along with the offer of a plea deal – a 166% increase, suggesting the initiative did not deter defendants from committing further crimes.
• The study also found that the average length of a case increased by 74% after the passage of Proposition 47.
• Additionally, the study found a 10.3% increase in the proportion of chronic drug offenders. The proportion of theft offenders who were chronic theft offenders also increased by 6.3%.
• Following the passage of Proposition 47, serious felony charges increased by nearly 23%, convictions increased by 20%, victim arrests increased by 42%, and victim convictions increased by nearly 36%.