Five Mets free agents will sign in the offseason

The 2024 Mets surprised most experts and analysts. Even the team played most of the season under the motto: “We shouldn’t have been here.”

That idea goes away in 2025. These are not your typical Mets and the expectations for this team now are postseason or bust. If they achieve this feat, it would be only the third time in franchise history that they have reached the playoffs in consecutive seasons.

And even that would be a disappointment for Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns. With the amount of money Cohen is willing to put into this team and Stearns’ ability to find and develop talent, the 2024 team was a good starting point for the organization. Now things can only get better.

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This offseason, fans will be watching the front office more closely than they have in years. Who are the key players they are signing and what additions will Stearns make to improve the team?

Here are five way-too-early predictions:

RESIGN

While these won’t be the only players who have become free agents that the Mets will re-sign, these two players will be the team’s main targets to retain this offseason. We start with…

Pete Alonso, 1B

Alonso’s desire to be a “lifelong Met” has not waned. From the first day he reported to spring training in February, when he first met with members of the media, he expressed his desire to remain in the orange and blue for life.

After Sunday’s NLCS Game 6 loss, Alonso reiterated his love for Queens.

“I loved being a New York Met,” Alonso said, suppressing his emotions. “I love representing the city of New York, I love representing Queens. That was really special.”

The problem was that his agent was floating a price tag of $200 million, according to a June report by USA TODAY’s Bob Nightengale — which is simply too high compared to first basemen of his caliber.

At that price, Alonso would far exceed his comps. Players like Matt Olson of the Braves, who signed an eight-year, $168 million ($21 million AAV) contract in 2022, and Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers, who signed a six-year, $162 million contract the same year US$27 million AAV.

Certainly there will be a price adjustment three seasons after signing Olson and Freeman. But $200 million is simply too much for Alonso at the moment.

His performance this season and overall downward trend do not justify such a payday. In 2024, Alonso posted a record .240/.329/.459 average with 34 home runs and 88 RBIs, a low output by his standards.

Still, Alonso, a member of the Mets’ core, is a valuable commodity in this day and age and deserves to be a Met forever.

Forecast: Alonso signs a 7-year contract with the Mets worth $175 million ($25 million AAV).

Sean Manaea, SP

After a disappointing performance in Game 6 of the NLCS, an emotional Manaea said he would “love to be back with the Mets” next season. His actions throughout the year, in and out of the clubhouse, have shown that Queens is his preferred venue.

Manaea reinvented himself as a starter, adopting a more horizontal arm position thanks to Braves star Chris Sale. During an 11-game stretch in August and September, the left-hander took his game to new heights with his new look, posting a 2.63 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP and 82 strikeouts during that span.

When he’s not on the hill, he takes the time to surprise members of Mr. and Mrs. Met’s kids’ club by leading the kids through a series of courses. He also takes the subway to and from his apartment and enjoys long walks around the city.

Manaea signed a two-year, $28 million contract last winter. However, the contract includes a player option which he is likely to exercise after the promotional season he has enjoyed.

That season, Manaea made a career-high 32 starts and posted a 3.47 ERA with 184 strikeouts in 181 2/3 innings.

forecast: Manaea signs a three-year deal worth $45 million to stay with the Mets. The contract could contain clauses that trigger an opt-out and/or more money.

THE BIG SPRAY

While the Mets are expected to make a push for Yankees right fielder Juan Soto, the reality is that there is no room for him on this roster filled with corner outfielders. The Mets will certainly be in play for Soto, but they will choose a move that makes more sense for them at this point.

Corbin Burnes, SP

If Manaea hadn’t had his turn as a true ace in the final two months of the season, the Mets would have been without a true No. 1 starter for the entire 2024 season. That changes next season when Stearns reunites with his star from his time with the Brewers, Corbin Burnes.

Burnes will be the most sought after pitching target in the MLB this offseason. After losing both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter, Cohen and Stearns won’t let Burnes get away this winter.

The 30-year-old right-hander is a rarity in today’s game. He made at least 32 starts in his last three straight seasons. And since becoming a starter in 2021, he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball — his 19.2 fWAR is only behind Phillies starter Zack Wheeler’s 22.7 fWAR over that span.

In 32 starts with the Orioles last season, in a difficult division, Burnes went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 181 strikeouts.

Forecast: Burns will sign a 6-year, $201 million contract with the Mets.

CALL TO THE PEN

Finally, one of Stearns’ strengths is his ability to build a bullpen. He proved it in 2024 when he reassembled the Mets’ pen after the Jorge López debacle in late May.

He then realigned the bullpen, retaining only two arms from the team’s opening night roster: Adam Ottavino and Edwin Díaz. This offseason, Stearns will secure at least two arms in free agency.

Jeff Hoffman, RHP

In his final two seasons with the Phillies, Hoffman reinvented himself and became one of baseball’s best players. In 122 appearances during that span, he pitched to a 2.28 ERA and struck out 158 ​​batters in 118 2/3 innings. In the previous seven seasons he never achieved an ERA below 3.83, the average was 5.68 ERA.

Hoffman has increased the use of his four-seam fastball and began throwing a sinker, a staple of Stearns’ Mets, in 2023. the middle defense.

The 31-year-old right-hander will work well with Díaz in the back of the bullpen and shorten games for the Mets.

Forecast: Hoffman signed a two-year, $12.5 million contract with the Mets.

Caleb Ferguson, RHP

The 28-year-old Ferguson is more of a reclamation project that the Mets have focused on this season. He has a four-pitch repertoire and is introducing a slurve and a sinker this season. Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner should be able to simplify his arsenal, making him a viable option out of the bullpen.

In 62 appearances last season, Ferguson posted a 4.64 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings. His season can be divided into two parts as he played on two teams.

With the Yankees, he posted a 5.13 ERA in 42 appearances. After being traded to the Astros at the trade deadline, he opted for a more reliable option and posted a 3.86 ERA in 20 appearances.

Forecast: Ferguson signs a one-year, $1.5 million contract with the Mets.

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Manny Gómez can be reached at [email protected].