a stark choice between Russia and the West

Two former Soviet republics are holding key elections this week that are likely to be crucial to their respective paths toward closer integration with the West amid rising Russian influence and the Ukraine war.

What is happening in Georgia and Moldova is being closely watched throughout the European Union and in Moscow. Russia has invested heavily in influencing the results of both elections. If successful, this will cause great concern in other former Soviet states as well as in the West.

Moldova is taking a tentative step towards the EU

On Sunday, Moldovans voted in the first round of their presidential election. A referendum was also on the agenda to change the country’s constitution to allow it to join the EU.

Polls before the election suggested the referendum would pass easily and popular pro-EU President Maia Sandu would be re-elected.

However, Russia launched a significant “propaganda attack” in the run-up to the vote, including credible claims of widespread vote buying to undermine the electoral process.

Sandu won the first round comfortably with over 42% of the vote, although not enough to avoid a runoff on November 3rd. The country’s pro-Russian parties are now likely to unite behind the second-place candidate in an attempt to oust them.

However, the referendum came close to failure before passing with a narrow majority.

Although Moldova’s negotiations with the EU would certainly continue under Sandu regardless of the outcome, the outcome was nonetheless worrying. It shows the strength of Russia’s influence operations to destabilize a nation seen as key to security on the EU and NATO’s eastern borders.

Moldova has a 1,200-kilometer border with Ukraine to the east and borders Romania, an EU and NATO member, to the west.

Polls suggest that a majority of Moldovans condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but a significant minority continue to hold pro-Russian views.

Russia has also repeatedly intervened in Moldova’s sovereignty in the past.

Moldova declared independence in 1991 during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but Transnistria, a small part of the country bordering Ukraine, was taken over by separatists in a military operation backed by Russian troops.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe officially recognized Transnistria as Moldovan territory still occupied by Russia.

What is at stake in Georgia?

On the day of Moldova’s vote, tens of thousands of pro-EU supporters staged a demonstration in Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital, calling on their country to take a pro-EU path in its own elections

The Georgian Dream party has been in power since 2012 and although it remains nominally pro-EU, it has gradually shifted to a pro-Russian stance.

The Georgian Dream-dominated legislature recently passed an anti-democratic, Putin-like law requiring groups that receive at least 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “agents of foreign influence.” And earlier this month, a sweeping anti-LGBTQ+ law was passed that bans same-sex marriage, adoption by same-sex couples and changing gender on identification documents.

The EU suspended Georgia’s accession process after the passage of the foreign agents law and recently cut 121 million euros (A$196 million) in funding due to “democratic backsliding”. This month, the European Parliament also overwhelmingly adopted a resolution calling for a freeze on EU funding to Georgia until its undemocratic laws are repealed.

Opposition parties are now working together to oust Georgian Dream from power, support the re-election of the current pro-EU president and put the country back on the path to rapid integration with the EU.

Polls show that support for joining the EU remains very high at almost 80%. However, as Moldova’s elections show, this is not necessarily reflected in voting on election day.

---

Read more: “We don’t want to be like Russia”: a first-hand account of Georgia’s fight for democracy

---

Russian interference

Russia has long been interfering in its southern neighbor. After an invasion of Georgia in 2008, Russian troops supported the two pro-Russian breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as they had done in Transnistria.

Russia has now set up military bases in both regions as well as a new naval base in Abkhazia, which will serve as a permanent base for parts of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

These incursions paved the way for Russia’s invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. As the post-Soviet Baltic states argued, the West’s lack of an adequate response to these incursions paved the way for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Georgians are understandably worried that Russia could invade their country again. Polls suggest that two-thirds of people support joining NATO.

There are concerns that Saturday’s election could also be affected. The Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly issued a statement earlier this month saying there were “alarming reports” suggesting that the Russian-backed Georgian Dream party was “preparing to steal the election.”

The report accused the ruling party of a “massive intimidation campaign” against opposition candidates and their supporters, including physical attacks. It was also said that the Central Election Commission had apparently been placed under the control of Georgian Dream.

The opposition and civil society groups alleged electoral fraud following the 2020 elections, leading to mass protests and a political crisis as the opposition boycotted parliament.

Why these elections are important

These elections in Georgia and Moldova are crucial for strengthening democratic rights in vulnerable former Soviet states. Any outcome that shifts their direction toward Russia will likely lead to increased repression of both minorities, including the LGTBQ+ community, and the political opposition.

Successes of pro-Russian candidates and parties – whether legitimate or not – will also lead to greater military and economic integration with Russia. Despite both countries’ broad support for NATO membership, victories by Russian-backed candidates will also undermine Ukraine’s support in its war with Russia.

While Moldova looks like pro-EU results have prevailed, Georgia’s elections are potentially more dangerous for European relations.

The stakes in both elections couldn’t be higher.