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Can Alabama football still make it to the CFP? What’s next after the Tennessee loss?

Can Alabama football still make it to the CFP? What’s next after the Tennessee loss?

Alabama football suffered its second loss in three games on Saturday, losing 24-17 on the road to No. 10 Tennessee. It’s been a continued unfavorable season for Kalen DeBoer, who has yet to lead the Crimson Tide to bowl eligibility at 5-2 in eight weeks.

With the loss, Alabama experienced something it has rarely experienced under Nick Saban: two losses in the regular season. Additionally, this is the first time since the 2007 season, Saban’s first at Alabama, that the Crimson Tide have suffered two losses through Week 8.

Just a season ago, a 5-2 record would have dashed the Crimson Tide’s hopes of making the College Football Playoff. In fact, it was the only rule the CFP committee strictly adhered to: No two-loss team ever made the four-team playoffs.

Required reading: How the Alabama football offensive woes end in a road loss to Tennessee

But this is no longer the four-team era, and Alabama’s hopes of making the playoffs, slim as they are, remain despite two losses in eight weeks. The margin of error for DeBoer and the Crimson Tide is razor thin for the rest of the season, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the team still makes the playoffs.

Here’s what you need to know about Alabama’s playoff chances:

Can Alabama football make the College Football Playoff?

Yes, Alabama can still make the College Football Playoff for the 2024 college football season. Expanding the field from four to twelve teams creates a greater margin for error, and it’s entirely possible for teams with two or three losses to make the playoffs.

In fact, several teams with two or three losses finished in the top 12 of the CFP rankings in each year of the four-team era, not including the 12th spot that in most years would have been for the fifth-highest conference champions. From 2014 to 2023, 52 teams finished in the top 11 of the final CFP rankings with two or three losses, not including the 2020 season, an average of about five teams per year.

What it ultimately means is that Alabama could win (and possibly even lose another game) and still make it to the final playoffs. However, the “safer” way to make the playoffs is with a win, as a third loss would put Alabama at risk of missing the playoffs entirely.

Required reading: What Alabama football coach Kalen DeBoer said about the 4th-and-22 decision against Tennessee

Can Alabama earn a first-round CFP bye?

While Alabama’s playoff hopes are still intact, the chances of the Crimson Tide making the playoffs with a first-round bye – meaning a spot in the top four – appear slim. For this to happen, Alabama would not only have to win, but also win the SEC Championship game.

With the SEC abandoning its divisions for the 2024 season, Alabama would have to finish as one of the conference’s top two teams to reach the championship. However, the Crimson Tide’s loss leaves them in eighth place in the conference standings, with two teams ahead of them that have already beaten them (Vanderbilt and Tennessee).

Additionally, Alabama only plays two teams ahead of it in the standings for the rest of the season, meaning the Crimson Tide would have to lose multiple SEC teams to have a chance of winning the SEC title game in Atlanta. In short: Alabama no longer controls its own destiny when it comes to making the SEC Championship Game.

The good news for Alabama is that the goal of reaching the SEC Championship is in lockstep with making the playoffs, as the Crimson Tide will likely need to win under DeBoer to make the playoffs in their first year.

Alabama football schedule 2024

It appears that the Crimson Tide’s biggest obstacle to reaching the final field – or perhaps its biggest opportunity – lies with its next two opponents: home against No. 16 Missouri in Week 9 and on the road against No. 8 LSU in Week 11 .

After that, Alabama has three weeks to finish the season at home against Mercer (6-1), at Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3 SEC) and at home against Auburn (2-5, 0-4). If Alabama can get past Missouri and LSU, it will be in a great position to finish with a 10-2 record and finish among the top 11 teams in the final CFP rankings.

Another positive for Alabama’s CFP resume is the fact that the team defeated the then ranked No. 1 team in the country 41-34 in Georgia. The Bulldogs’ win may not improve Alabama’s chances of making it to the SEC Championship Game, but it would certainly strengthen its track record when it comes to the committee selecting its final field.

The loss to Vanderbilt is a disaster, but a loss on the road to a top-10 Tennessee team won’t have an overly negative impact on the Tide’s CFP resume. Here’s a look at Alabama’s schedule for the year:

  • Saturday, August 31st: Alabama 63, Western Kentucky 0
  • Saturday September 7th: Alabama 42, South Florida 16
  • Saturday September 14th: Alabama 42, Wisconsin 10
  • Saturday September 28th: Alabama 45, No. 1 Georgia 28
  • Saturday, October 5th: Vanderbilt 40, Alabama 35
  • Saturday, Oct. 12: Alabama 27, South Carolina 25
  • Saturday, Oct. 19: No. 10 Tennessee 24, Alabama 17
  • Saturday, Oct. 26: against No. 16 Missouri
  • Saturday November 9th: at No. 8 LSU
  • Saturday November 16th: against Mercer
  • Saturday November 23rd: in Oklahoma
  • Saturday November 30th: against Auburn