Buccaneers vs. Ravens, where to watch: kickoff time, NFL live stream, spread, odds, prediction for “MNF”

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Baltimore Ravens in the first of two Monday Night Football games in Week 7.

Baltimore is on the right track in this matchup and has rattled off four straight wins after an 0-2 start to the season. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are ruthless against opposing defenses, just as many expected when the Ravens combined them in the backfield this offseason. The Bucs, meanwhile, also have one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in the NFL, led by a passing attack that made Baker Mayfield the No. 1 overall pick he was. It should be an exciting, back-and-forth affair and a joy to watch.

Can the Ravens win their fifth game in a row or will the Bucs make it two wins in a row? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s how to watch the game.

Where to watch Buccaneers vs Ravens?

Date: Monday, Oct. 21 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa)
Channel: ESPN | Electricity: fubo (try for free)
Consequences: CBS Sports App
Opportunities: Ravens -3.5; O/U 50 (via Caesars)

When the Ravens have the ball

Via Tru Media, the Bucs have allowed 4.7 yards per carry this year and 1.64 yards before contact. Both rank in the bottom third of the NFL. Worse, they posted the third-highest avoided tackle rate in the NFL, which might be just a minor problem against Jackson and Henry. The Bucs have also already allowed 187 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, which is the sixth-most in the NFL through six weeks. This is also a problem when facing an opponent led by Lamar Jackson. The Ravens’ offensive line has performed quite well in recent games and should be able to generate some pretty good forward momentum here.

Meanwhile, Todd Bowles’ defense boasts the league’s seventh-highest attack percentage. That would normally be a good idea against Jackson – but not this year. Lamar ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the Lightning, completing 39 of 56 passes (69.6%) for 542 yards (9.7 per attempt), taking just one sack and averaging one pass of an absurd 13 yards per scramble. He gets the ball out FAST, with over 53% of his attempts coming within 2.5 seconds of the snap compared to the blitz.

2019	0.43	60.2%	7.8	6.8%	19.2	48.0%
2020	0.08	64.0%	7.3	5.7%	7.5	48.0%
2021	-0.32	59.5%	5.8	13.7%	3.0	49.2%
2022	0.02	60.7%	6.9	8.5%	10.5	41.5%
2023	-0.04	51.8%	8.1	10.3%	4.6	54.1%
2024	0.31	69.6%	9.7	1.8%	13.0	53.6%

The Bucs will also be without their No. 1 cornerback in this game as Jamel Dean remains out. Zay Flowers was the intended target on 20 of Jackson’s 56 blitz attempts and he has 14 balls for 196 yards – a 14.0 per catch average. Flowers has emerged as Jackson’s top option by far, and he posted back-to-back 100-yard games for the first time in his career. With the state of Tampa’s pass defense, it could be another big game for him on the edge.

In other words, you can’t let the Ravens run the ball because they’re too good at it. If you stack the box, they can throw it on top. If you flash, they will burn you. And that’s assuming your defense is really good at all of these things. But the Bucs have problems in every area. It could be a very big night for Baltimore.

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When the Buccaneers have the ball

Mayfield has played quite well so far this season. He has completed 70.9% of his passes for an average of 7.9 yards per attempt and was 10th in the NFL in EPA per dropback through Week 6, according to Tru Media. He gets the ball out quickly in offensive coordinator Liam Coen’s offense (55.6% of his passes were thrown within 2.5 seconds of the snap, the highest single mark in the NFL) and lets his pass catchers go to work with the ball her hands.

While the Bucs regularly rip off big plays, Mayfield’s average throw traveled just 5.6 yards downfield – 2 full yards shorter than the league average. However, his receivers are averaging 7.1 yards after the catch per completion, which is the third-highest in the league and has resulted in 63.6% of Mayfield’s passing yards being generated after the catch, which is the second-highest percentage in the NFL represents.

That’s partly because Mayfield had the fifth-highest ratings in the NFL via Tru Media. But he tore those blitzes to shreds with a 77.3% completion rate, 9.3 yards per attempt, 7 touchdowns and not a single interception. However, Baltimore has significantly lowered its blitz rate this year under new defensive coordinator Zach Orr, and whether Baker can stay in the pocket longer and pick individual zones will be something to keep an eye on.

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The Ravens’ defense was league average in allowing yards after the catch and ranked 16th in YAC per completion. What will be important in this game will be whether Chris Godwin in particular can break free from Kyle Hamilton’s tight coverage and get some yards himself, as will the question of whether Rachaad White (if he is active), Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker can do so can do the same if Mayfield checks to them or they engage in the screen play. Baltimore’s linebackers are good in space, but have actually averaged the most yards per pass on opponents’ screens in the league. The 21 screen passes they faced yielded 205 yards, an average of 9.9 per attempt.

It’s especially important that the YAC component of Tampa’s offense shines through here because the Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL. Baltimore has averaged just 3.0 yards per carry and 0.93 yards before contact per carry, numbers that rank first and second in the league, respectively. Tampa has actually only had success when passing the ball to Irving or Tucker, but White still figures to get most of the snaps because he is involved (and effective) in the passing game, and that means the rushing Attack even lower is likely to succeed.

Prediction: Ravens 33, Buccaneers 27

The Bucs should be able to score some points, but the Ravens simply have way too many advantages on the offensive side of the ball. The idea that Tampa will be able to stop either Henry or Jackson doesn’t pass the smell test given how these two units have played so far, and in a matchup that’s based on who can score more points, they’re sitting up the better offense and better quarterback.

Bonus: Mike Tierney, whose last 74 picks with the Ravens is 50-22-2, released his pick for Monday night. Tierney leans towards the over total, but who does he back to cover him? Find out right here at Sportsline.

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