Each team’s draft compensation for the loss of a qualified free agent

The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of the free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether to accept the one-year contract (worth $21.05 million this winter). eligible free agents awarded or not. If a player has played the entire 2024 season with his team and has not received a QO in the past, he is eligible for a qualifying offer and thus may elect to accept the QO and forego free agency entirely.

If the player declines the QO, his former team must now receive draft pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere. Here’s the (mostly fixed) breakdown of what each team will receive if one of their eligible free agents actually moves to another club…

Recipient of the revenue share: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If one of those teams has a free agent who declines the QO and signs elsewhere for more than $50 million in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft. (For example, the Twins received the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft when the Cardinals signed Sonny Gray on a three-year, $75 million contract last winter.) If a team has a free agent who declines the QO and signs elsewhere for less than $50 million guaranteed, the compensatory pick would be between the Competitive Balance Round B and fall at the start of the third round. The 2024 draft did not feature these latter selections, but in 2023 these compensatory selections were the 68th, 69th and 70th overall selections.

The Brewers will certainly struggle Willy Adames a qualifying offer, and the Orioles are equally safe locks to extend the QOs to both Corbin Burnes And Anthony Santander. Christian Walker It’s also quite likely he gets a QO from the Diamondbacks. Michael Wacha He is expected to decline his $16 million player option for 2025 and re-enter the free agency market, and therefore the Royals could well decide to extend a qualifying offer to the veteran right-hander. Nick Martínez is a borderline candidate for a QO simply because $21.05 million is a high price for a lower-payroll team like the Reds to give to a pitcher who could best be used as a swingman. Martinez is another player facing a player option decision, as he can opt out and leave $12 million on the table to hit free agency again.

Teams that do not receive revenue sharing funds and that have not paid the competition balance tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox

For these teams, the compensatory selection for the loss of a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50 million). The Angels qualified for this category in 2023 by just under the tax limit, giving the team the 74th overall pick as compensation Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.

This year’s free agent class features some borderline QO candidates from these six teams. Boston’s Tyler O’Neill and San Diego Jurickson Profar And Ha Seong Kim It’s conceivable that teams will receive qualified offers, although teams could weigh the pros and cons by the QO deadline. In Kim’s case, the Padres will need any information on how the shortstop is doing in the early stages of his recovery from shoulder surgery.

Teams in limbo: Blue Jay, juveniles

It should be noted that these team rosters and their Competitive Balance Tax status will not be finalized until the league releases its official numbers in December. Typically, figuring out which teams exceed the $237 million tax threshold isn’t too difficult, and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do a great job of calculating luxury tax estimates over the course of a season. However, MLB’s internal calculations may differ or take into account some salary data that is not publicly known, so we won’t know for a while whether Toronto and/or Chicago are taxpayers or not.

According to both public websites, the Cubs are just over the $237 million tax threshold – RosterResource has their 2024 tax number at just over $238.4 million and Cot’s has an even tighter projection of $237.2 million . US dollars. When it comes to the Blue Jays, the two locations are split as they are over the threshold at RR at around $240.4 million, while the Jays are under the threshold at Cot’s at around $234.98 million .

While this tax status may impact whether the Cubs and Blue Jays pursue free agents who decline the QO, it’s a bit moot here since neither club has any free agents who appear to be viable qualifying offer candidates. If Cody Bellinger exercises its opt-out clause, Chicago cannot issue him a QO because Bellinger has already received one in the past.

Competitive balance sheet taxpayers: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

If a team exceeds the luxury tax, it will still receive a pick if a qualified free agent has signed elsewhere. However, this compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2025 draft. In the 2024 draft, these were the 134th, 135th and 136th overall picks.

Juan Soto (Yankees), Alex Bregman (Astros), Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers), Max Fried (Braves) and Pete Alonso (Mets) are all locks to receive qualifying offers. The Mets could also weigh offers Sean Manaea or Luis Severinowith Manaea most likely opting out of the final year of his contract with New York.