What Yayha Sinwar’s Death Revealed About Hamas’ Fading Capabilities | Opinion

Last week, in a surprise coincidence, Israeli forces eliminated Hamas leader and mastermind of the October 7 massacre, Yayha Sinwar. Like the death of Osama bin Laden ten years after 9/11, Sinwar’s death represents a strategic closure for many people in Israel; Sinwar was the mastermind and commander of the deadliest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, and the October 7 atrocities caused deep psychological trauma to Jews, along with a loss of personal security that will be felt for a long time. The closure that Sinwar’s death provides to the Israeli people is important to their progress and healing as a nation.

But there is also poetic justice in the facts about who killed Sinwar, when and where. Sinwar was not killed by Israeli special forces acting on information from their elite intelligence services. He was killed by regular Israeli soldiers with tanks from the IDF’s Gaza Division. It was the same division that collapsed on October 7th. Videos and photos of their tanks and crews being looted, burned and desecrated were distributed by so-called journalists traveling with Hamas in their massacre. The soldiers who killed Sinwar were also from the same unit that accidentally killed three Israeli hostages in the northern Gaza Strip nine months ago.

Sinwar was also killed on the first day of the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, a seven-day festival during which Jews commemorate the days when the Israelites lived in huts (Sukkot) during their years after the Exodus from Egypt. Sinwar initiated the massacre on October 7 on the last day of Sukkot last year.

Added to this is the fact that Sinwar was killed in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. The Israeli government had to overcome strong objections and threats from the international community to invade Rafah, but six Israeli hostages were found there after they were brutally murdered last month. Over 100 cross-border tunnels were also found there that were used to arm and supply Hamas.

But the details of Sinwar’s death also tell us a lot about the state of Hamas. Just as U.S. forces discovered Saddam Hussein cowering in a hole, the myth about Sinwar was also shattered. He was not found defiant and capable, surrounded by an elite bodyguard force in one of the luxury bunkers discovered in areas of Gaza such as Khan Yunis. Sinwar was killed looking distressed, dirty and disheveled. He lived in fear, running from tunnel to tunnel, from destroyed house to destroyed house, with just a few other men, in a district where he had hidden because the world had told the IDF not to could go there.

He did not command any forces with any capabilities. He didn’t monitor anything.

He had the paraphernalia of a bum: a packet of Mentos, tissues, some money and a fake passport that listed his occupation as employee of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).

Hamas is clearly broken. They clearly operate without leadership, on autopilot and as separate, unconnected guerrilla bands completely incapable of carrying out organized action.

Yes, Hamas could nominally elect and announce new leaders to replace Ismail Haniyeh, the Qatari political leader of Hamas killed last month, with another terrorist, someone like Khalil al-Hayya, who is currently leading the hostage negotiations outside the Gaza Strip . They could ceremoniously announce a leader to run shadow operations in Gaza, perhaps Yayha’s brother Mohammed Sinwar. Fanatical members of Hamas may still believe they can survive and one day win the war against Israel.

But ultimately peace for Israel and Gaza will only come if Hamas is prevented from regaining political or military power in the Gaza Strip.

Still, this could be the beginning of the end, although much still needs to happen. If Hamas refuses to release the remaining 101 hostages, the war will continue. If Hamas still has the weapons and power to assume primary control over the distribution of humanitarian aid in Gaza, the war will continue. If Hamas believes it can survive as a political or military power in Gaza, the war will continue.

The IDF will continue operations to rescue hostages and locate, clear and eliminate Hamas’ military capabilities and political power in Gaza. The challenge of delivering humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza while Hamas gangs seek to thwart and steal from it will continue. At some point, pockets free of Hamas gangs must be created so that new powers can be formed in Gaza to govern, secure and distribute humanitarian aid and facilitate reconstruction.

Wars are won when the enemy loses the means and will to continue fighting violently for essentially political goals. The cycle of violence will not stop without the complete military and political defeat of Hamas. But the death of Yayha Sinwar is an important moment that signals to Hamas, Israelis and Gazans that there may be ways to end the war.

John Spencer is director of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute (MWI) at West Point, co-director of MWI’s Urban Warfare Project and host of the “Urban Warfare Project Podcast.” He served as an infantry soldier for 25 years, including two combat tours in Iraq. He is the author of the book” Connected Soldiers: Life, Leadership, and Social Connection in Modern War” and co-author of” Understanding Urban Warfare.“

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense, the Department of the Army, the Army University, or the United States Military Academy.