The ultimate NBA season preview

Warriors beat writer Danny Emerman shares his thoughts on the Warriors and beyond

Since the Warriors won back-to-back titles in 2017 and 2018, no team has repeated as NBA champions. There is more parity, talent, roster turnover and 3-point volatility in the league than ever before.

The Celtics dominated modern basketball, eliminating everyone in their path en route to the title.

Boston had a league-leading 123.2 offensive rating last season, and their offensive efficiency after the All-Star break — when the league cracked down on touch fouls — was an incredible 12.1 points better than anyone else. When you add up the regular season and playoffs, they had a record of 80-21 – tied for the seventh-best record of all time.

Then they brought everyone back.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the league’s most consistent superstars, are either still in the prime of their careers or close to it. Derrick White is the most valuable role player in the NBA and Jrue Holiday remains arguably the most versatile defender. They go deep with players who can defend and hit 3s at high volume.

Boston’s best players, the Jays, also enter the season with additional external motivation (thanks to Steve Kerr and Team USA).

Rarely does a defending champion keep his core and start the title defense with chips on his shoulders. Given the realities of the second frontcourt and the team’s looming massive financial shortfalls, this is likely the Celtics’ last chance in this group to make a breakthrough, so there is urgency too.

These Celtics are certainly built to win another championship. If anyone is going to repeat it, it’s these Celtics. Yet the task is still so daunting.

Another 100+ basketball games are needed. It requires luck with health, and Kristaps Porzingis will already miss the first half of the season. It requires sacrifices up and down the roster – probably even more than the first time around.

Reps are so difficult in the current NBA climate that the Warriors needed arguably the greatest collection of talent ever to do so.

The Celtics are well positioned for a clash, but recent history is not on their side.

The selection for the final: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Celtics.

Let’s twirl around in the bandage.

The most fascinating players

Players are most likely to become X-factors, or at least have a wide range of possible outcomes. Let’s go to every conference as a group of three.

East: Josh Giddey (Bulls), Guerschon Yabusele (76ers), Jonathan Isaac (Magic)

West: Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Michael Porter Jr. (Nuggets)

Best bet

Vegas has set the Grizzlies’ over/under at 47.5 wins. Not only will they win more than that, they also have a chance to threaten OKC for the top spot in the West.

Ja Morant is in his prime. Desmond Bane is a star. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a force on both ends. Marcus Smart can give Memphis even more versatility defensively. Rookie Zach Edey should provide a different dimension and the bench with Santi Aldama, Vince Williams Jr., Brandon Clarke and Luke Kennard makes perfect sense.

The trio of Morant, Jackson and Bane outscored their opponents by 11.7 points per 100 possessions two years ago. It’s possible that all three are better players now than they were back then, and Memphis also has better options around them. They are ready to return to contention, just as they were the No. 2 seed two seasons ago.

Other best bets: Phoenix over 47.5 wins, Nets under 18.5 wins, James Harden will lead the league in assists (+900).

(Call 1-800-Gambler if you’re tempted to bet on one of Bronny James’ countless props.)

Biggest surprise team

Orlando came in last year and secured fifth place in the East thanks to an elite defense.

With rising stars like Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner as well as the addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the Magic should be firmly in playoff contention. Many experts peg them as the Pacers and Cavaliers, but in reality they are closer to the 76ers than to the middle class.

Rookie of the Year Prediction

Everyone loves Reed Sheppard, but the Rockets have a lot of mouths to feed. He’ll definitely be there, but the former Kentucky guard is on a backcourt depth chart along with Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks.

Ime Udoka’s Rockets are deep and will be a problem in the bottom half of the Western Conference playoff picture.

But give me Stephon Castle for rookie of the year.

Castle has a chance to become an elite defender and can learn from Chris Paul. San Antonio will need its point defense, and its shot creation looked better than advertised in Summer League.

The Rookie of the Year award usually goes to the tower with the highest score, and that probably won’t be Castle. But if Spurs are ahead of schedule, as I think they are, it’s because Castle is overperforming alongside Victor Wembanyama.

A team you don’t want to see on the second night of a back-to-back game

Heavy legs and a suboptimal night’s sleep don’t go well with running with the Sacramento Kings.

The well-coached Kings play hard every night and are ready to get back into the top-five offense. De’Aaron Fox speeds you up, DeMar DeRozan slows you down, and Domantas Sabonis elbows you through the chest. They won’t play much defense, but good luck keeping up with the Kings.

The best player to change teams in the middle of the season

The Rockets were better last year when Alperen Sengun was out, as Jalen Green was able to initiate more offense and Jabari Smith played more small-ball center. If they stumble, Sengun — a nightly double-double and excellent passer — could be on the move.

All-Watchable for the first team

The Nova Knicks in a new look
The Run-n-Gun Pacers
Spurs and their CP3-Wemby connection
The historically great Celtics
Steph Curry & Co in Golden State

If they’re on TV, tune in.

The most fascinating players

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