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Za’Darius Smith – Over 0.25 Sacks @ +130 (Browns)

Several factors speak in Smith’s favor. First, it’s a home game against the Bengals’ mediocre offensive line. Their quarterback Joe Burrow averages three sacks per game. And the only team that didn’t record a sack against Cincinnati is the Panthers. We will cover them in more detail later. However, the Panthers have one of the least effective edge rushing units in the league as they lack impact players, making them an outlier.

Smith also benefits from playing alongside one of the league’s best defensive players, Myles Garrett. And a solid, but not overpowering, central defensive line. Smith still performs very well above average and has a solid pass-rush grade. And since it’s a division game in Cleveland, we can expect the Browns’ A-game on defense. They must try to eliminate Joe Burrow or all will be lost early despite Nick Chubb’s return to the lineup. But don’t be surprised if this Browns defense makes it harder for the Bengals than some might think. This is a great rivalry and we have every confidence Smith will get his fourth sack of the year this weekend.

Oh yeah, and the Bengals currently have a starting offensive back and a rookie at right tackle. Amarius Mims performed fairly well, but in the heat of the game we’ll no doubt give the thumbs up to the veteran Smith in Cleveland.

To add a strange fact that might be brought into play here by some higher powers. Smith has had a sack in every other contest so far this season. And last week against the Steelers, he didn’t score a single game. So, short and sweet, and looking for the combination games “Hail Mary” and “Money”. If Za’Darius Smith averages over 0.25 sacks at +130 against the Bengals, we’ll start this round-robin tournament with a bang! Always keep your limits in mind when playing your best bets.

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Harold Landry – Over 0.25 Sacks @ +155 (Titans)

In this case, we’re leveraging the skills and experience of star edge rusher and Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Landry is a well-known pass rusher who is coming off a quiet but strong season. And he did it without defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, but that just changed. Simmons was back after a few weeks off and they are just getting back in sync.

One plus: We know the Titans are struggling, so Landry and Simmons should get plenty of snaps in Buffalo. Even though the Bills’ offensive line is ranked in the top ten, that hasn’t stopped Josh Allen from playing his game. As a result, he has been sacked six times in the last three games. It may not sound like much, but Landry’s prowess against Allen will create opportunities of its own. And perhaps, unlike Simmons, Landry is the best option to get to Allen on the run.

According to PFF, Allen was sacked eight times, but only two were attributed to the Bills’ offensive line.

That’s why I’m picking the veteran edge rusher who rarely gets stopped and now has an elite defensive tackle alongside him. This big, plus-money bet relies on both Landry and Allen competing. And don’t forget, we’re conducting a ring test here.

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Byron Young – Over 0.25 Sacks @ +180 (Rams)

When I watched this matchup, I was hoping that DraftKings would list Raiders DE Charles Snowden. Unfortunately that’s not the case, but I’ll keep an eye out to see if he shows up. I would be very interested in these possible plus money odds. However, we are here to talk about another solid pass rusher who is capable and doesn’t overachieve. As we mentioned in a previous article, Young had a bit of a breakout year in 2023. Things didn’t go so well this year, as the Rams’ new, young defensive unit struggled with growing pains and other issues. Is he elite? No. But his PFF pass rush grade is in the low 70s, which is above average with some upside potential.

This has more to do with the Raiders’ offensive line, which is ranked 25th to 30th by most reputable websites, and their quarterback situation. The Raiders don’t give up a lot of sacks, but they allow for high production overall. This will open up opportunities for Young, Kobi Kurner and Jarred Verse, although Verse isn’t as big of a target this week. As already mentioned, the young players are still struggling with growth problems. This defense is heavily built to pressure the quarterback, and that will be important at home against the Raiders’ shaky quarterback situation.

Young only has two sacks and modest support stats this season, which is true. One thing is for sure: Young will deliver when the numbers match up based on last year’s performance. Just like in Week 3 when he played for us, this matchup shows great potential. In fact, no matter who starts at quarterback for the Raiders, it looks even better than the strong Week 3 matchup against the 49ers and Brock Purdy.

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Anfernee Jennings – Over 0.25 Sacks @ +240 (Patriots)

Jacksonville’s subpar offensive line has allowed 3.5 sacks per game in 4 of 6 games this season. The other two games came against the then-struggling or injured Texans and Colts defenses. What’s notable is that the Texans still managed to release Trevor Lawrence once. The only above-average pass rushers that Jacksonville faced in weeks one and two were the Browns and Dolphins.

The Patriots have a lot of talent, but we have to pay attention to their plans. Jennings has momentum coming into this match. He is one of the Patriots’ top three or four defensive linemen in the snap rotation, which they rotate frequently. Jennings plays primarily as a fullback or defensive end and is used on passing downs. When healthy, he still plays about 60% of the snaps. He was the most productive of all Patriots pass rushers except for sacks (0.5). However, he performs well in all other areas with 27 combined tackles and 3 tackles for a loss.

Jennings isn’t just an edge rusher; He also plays inside and helps with stunts to create pressure. All of the Patriots’ defensive linemen often stunt and switch inside. So, since I want to capitalize on this matchup against the Jacksonville-Lawrence offense, I’m picking the most consistent player. Jennings, whose PFF rating is around 70, offers a great plus-money payout of +240 in this round-robin game.

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Recording the Panthers via a sack @ +450 (NO)

Focusing on this matchup, I checked DraftKings and the only sack bet listed was on Panther Charles Harris. There’s no way this can happen. That’s why I decided to check out DraftKings’ Team Sack tab for this game. To my surprise, it’s a great option at +450 and here’s why.

Washington, once a top-10 team, is now at the bottom when it comes to allowing production on the interior and perimeter. Although QB Jayden Daniels had several sacks, he had one game without any sacks. That was against the Arizona Cardinals, who are only slightly better than the Panthers in terms of edge talent. No one would dispute that the Panthers currently have the 32nd ranked pass rush unit. They began the season by eliminating linebacker Frankie Luvu and DE/OLB Brian Burns without replacing them. Just ask Panthers DT Derrick Brown (IR) and DE Jadeveon Clowney (D) – it was tough.

The Panthers’ primary edge rusher is currently Charles Harris, a former first-round pick who became the starter when DJ Wonnum was injured in Week 1. Things only get worse from there. Harris is rated below average, as is DJ Johnson, who goes deeper. Johnson may be more productive in tackles, but he’s still well below average on PFF. So yeah, at +450, a modest bet in a round-robin this weekend definitely makes sense.

Remember, moderation is the key to enjoying this…

DEEP Defensive Week 7 NFL Prop Bets!

Thanks for joining us, take care, see you all again next week!

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