Georgia vs. Texas, Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction: College Football Picks

While Texas should be considered elite, the Longhorns have played a relatively tough schedule thus far, crushing lower-tier G5 teams like Colorado State, UTSA and UL Monroe and defeating Michigan and Oklahoma – ranked I teams well below the market.

In hindsight, even though Georgia didn’t look as dominant as in previous years, the Bulldogs had some outstanding performances this season.

Their win over Clemson is looking good now that the Tigers are 5-1 behind the hottest offense in college football, and their one-point road win over Kentucky looks better after the Wildcats upset Ole Miss.

The loss to Alabama doesn’t look nearly as bad, but let’s not forget that Carson Beck and Co. scored more points against the Crimson Tide in the final 40 minutes of the game, 34-13.

The Bulldogs are still loaded with two-way talent and have flashed moments of brilliance in a season of ups and downs.

Kirby Smart is a master motivator, and the Longhorns have never played a team this talented.

I expect this week’s Top 5 matchup to live up to the hype and ultimately be decided by a field goal or less.

The choice: Georgia +5.

Kentucky (-1.5) over FLORIDA

Kentucky is in a perfect position to rebound after last week’s loss to Vanderbilt.

After their only other loss this year (against South Carolina), the Wildcats put Georgia away.

Graham Mertz is a good quarterback whose season-ending injury will greatly impact Florida’s passing attack.

The Gators will have to lean on Montrell Johnson in the running game, which doesn’t bode well against Kentucky’s teeming front seven, which ranks 14th nationally in rush success rate allowed.

Conversely, Kentucky wants to establish the run (22nd nationally in rush rate), and the Wildcats should overtake Florida’s hapless front seven (92nd in rush success rate allowed, 88th in EPA per rush rate allowed).

MICHIGAN STATE (+5.5) over Iowa

Jonathan Smith is an underrated coach.

In time, he should be able to revitalize the Michigan State football program.

Teams led by Smith are 10-2 against the standings with eight or more days between games.

He is an excellent game planner.

The Spartans were fortunate to earn their bye last week after back-to-back games against top-five teams Ohio State and Oregon.

Extra time is especially valuable for an excellent game planer, and after 15 days of intrigue, I expect Smith and the Spartans to do their best to withstand relegation in the competition.

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Iowa’s offense is improving, but the Hawkeyes’ downfield passing attack is still ineffective (113th nationally in EPA per dropback) as they continue to rely on Kaleb Johnson in the ground game.

Smith has already reformed Sparty’s front seven (30th nationally in rush success rate allowed).

They can still outscore them, but Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara has shown he is unable to do so consistently.

I don’t know how quarterback Aidan Chiles and Sparty’s offense will perform against Iowa’s elite defense, but Iowa games are typically low-scoring, and 5.5 points is more than enough to compete in a Big Ten battle to get points.

LAST WEEK: 1-1. Ole Miss (L), California (W).

SEASON 2024: 10-10

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Why should you trust New York Post Betting?

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a die-hard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and all the underdogs in his homeland. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by beating Sandy Alcantara at 40/1 to win the NL Cy Young.