Should you buy Tesla shares before October 23? Here’s what the story suggests

October looks to be an eventful month Tesla (TSLA -0.09%).

On October 2, Tesla released its third-quarter production and delivery statistics – a standard procedure for the company before releasing its quarterly results. Just a few days later, the highly anticipated “We, Robot” event took place, where the company showcased its advances in self-driving vehicles and humanoid robots.

And on October 23, the company will release its third-quarter earnings report.

Let’s examine some key topics that investors should think about as Tesla’s quarterly earnings report approaches and assess whether now is a good time to buy the stock.

What is Tesla’s upcoming report about?

As a Tesla shareholder, I will be looking for the following in the third quarter report:

1. Updates to the cheaper vehicle model;

2. News about robotaxi and autonomous driving in general;

3. Anything related to Optimus and Tesla’s robotics vision.

Despite all of this, I don’t think the upcoming report and earnings call will be anything special. Much of this news has already been shared.

I would be quite surprised if Tesla management provided much more detail on October 23rd or said something materially different than what they shared during the Robotaxi event on October 10th. For this reason, I don’t hold my breath expecting surprises – positive or negative.

How did Tesla stock perform after the earnings reports?

The following graphic illustrates the price development of Tesla shares over the last seven earnings periods. The results report dates are indicated by the purple circles with the letter “E”.

Data from YCharts.

It is evident that Tesla stock tends to experience increased volatility around the time of its earnings release. In several cases, stocks rose significantly in advance of these reports, only to collapse again shortly after they arrived.

If in doubt, zoom out

However, take a step back and look at Tesla stock returns over different time periods.

Data source: Ycharts.

Apparently, Tesla shareholders have been disappointed with the stock’s results in recent years. Macroeconomic forces such as persistent inflation and a high interest rate environment impacted the company’s growth. However, the economy is showing signs of resilience: Inflation has cooled to below 3%, the Federal Reserve is tapering interest rates, and the job market remains fairly strong. I think these factors should bode well for Tesla in the near term.

However, in the long run, there is something much more important to consider. Tesla shares have been a real multibagger in the long run.

So the question remains: Should you buy Tesla shares ahead of the next earnings report? In my opinion it doesn’t matter. There’s a good chance the stock will experience greater volatility like it has in previous winning periods, but the more important point is that trying to time the market is usually a losing proposition.

If you believe in Tesla’s AI vision and think the company is taking the right steps to remain a leader in the automotive industry, the stock could be worth adding to your portfolio, regardless of where we are on the earnings calendar condition.