Democrats could lose the Senate despite beating GOP opponents in the money race

• Democrats have raised far more money than their Republican opponents in closely contested Senate races.
• But they still face a difficult situation, and no amount of money can fix it.
• Additionally, self-funding by wealthy candidates and spending by super PACs have helped the Republican Party catch up.

Heading into the final stretch of the 2024 campaign, Democratic incumbents and candidates in the nation’s nine competitive Senate races have overwhelmed their Republican opponents in fundraising, in a few cases raising four times as much money.

But Democrats are still likely to lose their current 51-vote majority no matter who wins the presidential election. That means Vice President Kamala Harris, if elected, would be unable to implement much of her proposed domestic policy agenda, particularly on abortion or the economy.

The main reason, simply put, is that Democrats are dealing with a really tough situation this year.

About a third of the country’s 100 senators are up for re-election every two years, and each cycle brings different opportunities for each party. While 2022 and 2020 provided Democrats with good chances for a rebound, this year they find themselves almost entirely on the defensive, with very few opportunities to expand their majority and multiple opportunities for Republicans to defeat Democrats.

Super PAC spending — including from the crypto industry — as well as ultra-wealthy GOP candidates funding their own campaigns have allowed Republicans to make up some of their cash shortfall.

With Sen. Joe Manchin retiring, Republicans are all but certain to pick up a Senate seat in deep-red West Virginia, which would bring them to 50 seats if they avoid losses.

If former President Donald Trump wins, they already have a hypothetical majority, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate. If Harris wins, Republicans will only need to win one more seat to have the majority — and in Montana they already have a good chance of doing so.

Democrats have outperformed Republicans in almost all of the hotly contested Senate races in recent months

Money certainly isn’t everything in politics, but it helps to have more of it than your opponent, especially when you’re on defense.

From the arid plains of Montana to the sweltering deserts of Arizona and Nevada to the Great Lakes region, Democratic candidates repeatedly outperformed their opponents during the latest fundraising campaign, which ran from July 1 to September 30.

In Ohio, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown outspent his opponent nearly five times, bringing in $30.7 million, while Republican candidate Bernie Moreno brought in just $6.5 million. In the race for Michigan’s open Senate seat, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin raised four times as much as her opponent, bringing in about $16.7 million, while former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers brought in nearly $4.2 million. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego raised $20.7 million to Republican Kari Lake’s $8.6 million, more than doubling her earnings.

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In the nine most competitive races in the country, Democratic candidates earned an average of 2.8 times more revenue than Republican candidates.

When it comes to cash on hand – the amount of money candidates had left in their bank accounts about a month before the election – Democrats and Republicans were about even.

Most candidates were within a few million dollars of their opponents, and in Texas – the Democrats’ best bet this cycle – Sen. Ted Cruz had more than $10 million more in cash than his Democratic opponent, Rep. Colin Allred .

But by raising more money, Democratic candidates were able to accomplish this, too spend more money than their opponents, allowing them to cover the airwaves and build the necessary campaign infrastructure to carry them through the final month.

“Democrats’ strong grassroots fundraising is the latest evidence of why Democrats are in the best possible position to defend our majority,” said Tommy Garcia, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “We have better candidates, stronger campaigns and our candidates have support from voters of all political persuasions.”

“Democrats will always have more money than us thanks to the liberal billionaire elites who support their campaigns, but Republican Senate candidates are spreading their message with the resources we have,” said Philip Letsou, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “The race for the Democrats is getting tighter everywhere and we are heading into the home stretch with a good feeling.”

So far, the Democratic candidates continue to lead in the polls in every state where they are in the defense, with the exception of Montana.

Democrats have a problem in Big Sky Country

To understand why money can’t buy Democrats the Senate, look no further than Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is fighting for his political life in a state where former President Donald Trump won double digits in 2016 and 2020.

Tester defeated his Republican opponent Tim Sheehy in fundraising from July to September. The longtime Montana Democrat raised $32.1 million — more than any Senate candidate in the country during that period — while Sheehy raised $9.7 million.

But since August, poll after poll has shown Tester several points behind Sheehy, a result never seen in the senator’s previous re-election bids in 2012 and 2018.

The reason for this could be the continued decline in “ticket splitting,” a phenomenon in which citizens vote for candidates from different political parties in the same election. For example, a Montana resident could vote for Tester in the Senate election but vote for Trump in the presidential election.

This used to be more common and there used to be more cases of Democrats representing conservative states and Republicans representing blue states. But as polarization and partisan divides have deepened in recent election cycles, a growing portion of the electorate is simply voting for one party by the end of the ballot.

Still, Tester could pull it off, and there are signs that some Trump voters still plan to support the Democratic senator: Tester is consistently well ahead of Harris in Montana.

Super PACs — and wealthy candidates who fund their own campaigns — have helped the GOP close some of the gap

There is one closely contested Senate race where the Republican easily edged out the Democrat – Wisconsin, where Eric Hovde brought in $11.2 million while Sen. Tammy Baldwin brought in $11 million.

But that was only possible because Hovde, a wealthy businessman, poured $7 million of his own money into his campaign in August and September.

It’s part of a broader strategy Republicans have pursued this election cycle, at times relying on the fortunes of their own candidates to finance their campaigns.

In Pennsylvania, Republican candidate Dave McCormick has loaned his campaign nearly $4.3 million since the campaign began. Sheehy and Moreno have also donated millions to their campaigns.

There is also “external spending” — money spent on each candidate’s behalf by groups that are not officially affiliated with either campaign.

Both Democrats and Republicans have super PACs for Senate races, and they are about evenly matched in fundraising. The Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund recently raised $115.7 million, while the Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC brought in $119 million.

This kind of spending can make a big difference in important races, with Ohio being a key example. In addition to super PAC spending from Democratic and Republican groups, the Buckeye State has also seen a surge in spending from Defend American Jobs, a super PAC with ties to the cryptocurrency industry.

Brown, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, has been a crypto critic, and the pro-crypto group has now spent over $40 million on ads promoting Moreno, his Republican opponent.

Polls so far have largely shown Brown ahead of Moreno, a remarkable result considering that, like Montana, Trump has easily won the state twice.

But polls have tightened in recent weeks, and if Moreno defeats Brown, Democrats will have virtually no chance of retaining the majority — and cryptocurrency will have played a key role.