Donald Trump is now the favorite to win for the first time in months

Former President Donald Trump is the favorite to win the November presidential election for the first time since August 7, according to the latest model from poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight.

The latest FiveThirtyEight update released Friday gave the Republican a 51 percent chance of winning on Nov. 5, compared to 49 percent for Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris. FiveThirtyEight said it ran 1,000 simulations of its election model, producing 510 victories for Trump, 486 for Harris and four with no winners.

Recent polls suggest the presidential election remains closely contested. An analysis of the latest poll published Friday by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris with a 2.1 percent lead in the popular vote. However, because of the Electoral College system, the vice president could win the popular vote but lose overall, as Hillary Clinton did against Trump in 2016.

An analysis of betting odds by major bookmakers calculated Friday by data aggregator RealClearPolitics found that Trump’s average probability of winning was 58.5 percent, compared to 40.4 percent for Harris.

The latest analysis showed Trump won an average of 271 Electoral College seats, one more than the 270 needed to win, versus 267 for Harris. This was the first time the Republican nominee was favored over the vice president since August 7, when the FiveThirtyEight model produced an average result of 270 Electoral College votes for Trump versus 268 for his Democratic rival.

Harris’ best result came on September 18, when FiveThirtyEight predicted she would gain an average of 300 Electoral College seats, well ahead of Trump’s 238. This came shortly after the only televised presidential debate between Harris and Trump on September 10, which was a CNN flash poll concluded that the Democratic candidate had won.

Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race on July 21 and offered her his support. That followed weeks of speculation about the 81-year-old president’s age and cognitive abilities after he took office and fought Trump in a debate in late June.

Harris formally accepted the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination on the final day of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 22.

Newsweek contacted representatives from the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris via email outside of regular office hours on Saturday seeking comment.

An analysis of swing voters on social media released Friday by monitoring firm Impact Social found that both Harris and Trump had lost ground with that group since late September.

The data showed that Harris’ approval rating among swing voters increased from -8 on September 27 to -17 on October 18, while Trump rose from -10 to -23 among that group over the same period.

This was said by Dafydd Townley, an American political expert at the British University of Portsmouth Newsweek: “Trump and Harris have become polarizing figures, and both are now trying to appeal to voters dissatisfied with their party’s representatives. Undecided voters in swing states will be crucial to this election, as there will likely be a narrow victory there.” battleground states.