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NOAA’s 2024-25 winter forecast maps show what to expect in Vermont

NOAA’s 2024-25 winter forecast maps show what to expect in Vermont

Milton Aftermath: Flooding and Damage in Orange City, Florida

After Hurricane Milton, Orange City, Florida was hit by flooded streets, widespread flooding and storm damage.

A milder winter is expected in Vermont this year, according to a federal weather report.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter forecast, there is a nearly 50/50 chance that Vermont will be warmer than normal in the months of December, January and February.

According to the National Center for Environment Information, the average winter temperature in Vermont in 2023 was 27.2 degrees Fahrenheit, 9.9 degrees below the 1901-2000 average.

La Niña is expected to dominate the weather this winter.

The forecasters’ discussion said there is a 71% chance of La Niña occurring from September to November, with that probability continuing from January to March 2025.

What is the NOAA forecast for Vermont this fall?

A NOAA forecast also found that Vermont, as well as the rest of New England, is expected to have above-average rainfall amounts for the remainder of this fall, with a 33% to 40% chance in October, November and December.

The forecast says there is a 40% to 50% chance that temperatures will be above average in most parts of Vermont this fall.

What is La Nina?

La Niña, which means “little girl” in Spanish, is a weather pattern that can impact winter temperatures, according to NOAA.

“During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water into Asia,” NOAA said. “Off the west coast of America, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface… This cold water in the Pacific is driving the jet stream northward.”

As cold water in the Pacific pushes the jet stream north during La Niña, the southern United States may experience more droughts, while the Pacific Northwest and Canada experience simultaneous heavy rains and flooding.

“Winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north,” NOAA said in a portion of the U.S. where La Nina is active.

Rin Velasco is a trends reporter. She can be reached at [email protected]. Seth Jacobson contributed to this report.