A delicate time for Europe as the clock is ticking for Biden

US President Joe Biden’s state visit to Germany on Friday was extremely short.

But the US President used every minute in Berlin to make it clear in the final weeks before he leaves office in January that he still has great ambitions on the world stage. Especially in the Middle East and Ukraine.

European defense has been a cornerstone of Biden’s foreign policy – a stark contrast to that of his predecessor Donald Trump, now a 2024 presidential candidate.

In recognition of his efforts, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier awarded Biden his country’s highest honor, the special class of the Grand Cross.

The conflict in Ukraine is the worst war this continent has seen since the Second World War since Russia’s all-out invasion.

And as it did 80 years ago, Europe relies on the United States for coordinated leadership and military support.

But Biden insisted that much more needed to be done: “We must continue until Ukraine achieves a just and lasting peace… We must maintain our support.”

Much will depend on who wins the US elections in November.

Europe relied on US military aid to help Ukraine. Berlin is the second largest donor after Washington, although the volume loses significance compared to its allies across the Atlantic.

Those days of American generosity are likely to be over once Biden leaves the White House.

Even if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris becomes the next US president, Congress is likely to turn to other foreign policy priorities such as China and Taiwan.

As for Trump, relations with NATO – the transatlantic military alliance that has existed since World War II – were notoriously turbulent during his 2016-2020 term.

He is known to have admired Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “strongman” character and has not yet said publicly whether he wants Kiev to emerge victorious from the conflict.

Although there is constant talk in NATO circles about “Trump-proofing” European defense ahead of the upcoming US elections, there is little evidence that this has actually taken place or that Europe would be able to successfully do so To go it alone if necessary.

After the full-scale invasion of Russia in 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised a “turning point”, a historic turning point in which his country would leap beyond the shadow of its Nazi past and invest massively in its military to fully contribute to the common defense of its allies.

This week, German intelligence chiefs warned that Russia would be able to attack NATO by the end of the decade because of its continued investment in its military.

But Germany’s planned military restructuring has gotten stuck in bureaucracy. The government has not even agreed on a future defense budget.

Diplomats say Biden is worried about Europe’s resolve and there are signs of increasing “Ukraine fatigue” as allies in Europe grapple with their own domestic challenges.

Scholz faces significant pressure at home ahead of next year’s general election from the far right and far left, both of which are sympathetic to the Russian narrative.

On Friday, Scholz and Biden met in Berlin with the major Ukrainian donor countries Great Britain and France.

The “Quad,” as these four major NATO powers are called, also discussed Iran and the entire Middle East. On Ukraine, in their joint press statement they reaffirmed their determination to continue supporting Kiev.

British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Russia was becoming weaker and the war was consuming 40% of Moscow’s budget.

He said he and the other leaders had discussed “what other capabilities, what other equipment and what other resources” they could use to help Ukraine. But he didn’t go into details.

But it is precisely these details that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has demanded in his “victory plan”. Special features such as an official invitation to join NATO and a free hand in the use of long-range missiles supplied by Great Britain and France. An application that has so far been rejected.

Kiev sees an engaged Biden on the way out of office, Scholz expects to lose next year’s German federal election, and French President Emmanuel Macron is politically stymied at home.

For Ukraine, additional help from its largest donors cannot come fast enough. The country is lagging behind Russia on its front lines and is in a particularly vulnerable phase. The rest of Europe is too.