This week’s big question: What’s wrong with the Falcons’ run defense?

In 2023, the Atlanta Falcons defense surprised many. The team had spent the previous offseason adding key contributors like David Onyemata, Mike Hughes, Kaden Elliss and, most importantly, Jessie Bates. The team also drafted Zach Harrison, Clark Phillips and Demarco Hellams, which may be the best three-player series Terry Fontenot has ever had in the draft. They also hired Ryan Nielsen as defensive coordinator to orchestrate this rebuilding roster and brought Jerry Gray on board to provide his expertise.

This resulted in Atlanta having one of the best defenses of the last decade. The pass rush, while nothing special, was going in the right direction, but what really stood out was the tenacity against the run. In 2024, this run defense has become Charmin Soft, giving up the eighth-most yards per game, leading many to question how and why.

The personnel in this front seven are largely the same. However, the losses of Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree should not be underestimated. Atlanta overestimated how much the previous defense had improved and how easy it would be to improve it further.

Every season the teams try to improve. Although the Falcons said they drafted three players on the defensive line, none were considered players they wanted to rely on this year, and one of them currently plays for the Bills. This has resulted in Atlanta placing a greater workload on players starting in 2023.

That sounds like a good thing at first. Atlanta has a number of young defensive players in the front seven and many were hoping to see more of that, but that’s not the case. I compared the Falcons Pro Football Focus snap count data from 2023 to 2024 and did some projections to see how many snaps players were on track for and came to the following conclusion:

Arnold Ebiketie is the only player on a rookie contract who is expected to take more snaps this year than in 2023 — still 40 fewer than his rookie year. Zach Harrison is on pace to play 128 fewer snaps than he did as a rookie. Additionally, Lorenzo Carter is on pace to play 149 more snaps and David Onyemata is expected to have the third-most snaps in his career and the most since 2018.

There is no reason for Jimmy Lake to stick with his current deployments and personnel allocations. The Falcons are simply not getting the results they want. We’ve heard this group has been stacked throughout the offseason, but Lake is running things as if there are only a few players he trusts or knows what to do with. It’s time for Lake to step out of his comfort zone, and this is just the beginning.

Lake stubbornly refused to continue using light boxes and soft covers and teams are taking advantage of this. According to NFL Pro, defenses show a light box (6 or less) 51% of the time, the eighth-highest rate in the league, with the average being 41%. Conversely, they have a stacked box (8+ defenders) 14.4% of the time, the 22nd lowest rate, with the league average being 22%. If you give the opposing offense the numbers in the box, any average offensive coordinator will take advantage of that and run the ball. The Falcons have run the fifth-most runs in the league, and for a team that’s constantly under pressure, that’s a staggering statistic. No other team in the top five has a winning record, and only one is at .500 (Indianapolis).

The box numbers are a side effect of the staff living in Nickel. Nothing is stopping Atlanta from putting this nickel defenseman in the box to create a neutral (7-man) look. Actually it is large Many expected Richie Grant to play the nickel role, but Grant only has five snaps in the box. Lake opted to stick with Alford, who has had solid performances in the past but is simply not suited to the big nickel role and therefore hasn’t been asked to do so. We’ve seen Bates and Simmons primarily as a seventh defender, and while that worked for Bates, it doesn’t work as well for Simmons and isn’t the best use for him. These lightboxes kill the Falcons on early downs (1st and 2nd), and the pass defense doesn’t get a significant boost either.

The defense is allowing a 42.8 run success rate on early downs, the sixth-worst in the entire league, while being average in terms of dropback success rate. Opposing offenses can hit hard on early downs and get themselves into manageable third-down situations. Lake’s heavy use of Cover 3 and Cover 6 has also allowed offenses to force their way to advantageous third and short positions. So while we don’t see big plays, we do see offenses moving the ball systematically and without resistance. Lake needs to start being more aggressive on early downs instead of waiting for the offense to get into these favorable third-down situations.

The Falcons were better on third down vs. run than on first or second. In terms of success rate, they are ranked 11th instead of 6th. A big reason for this is the increased number of defenders in the penalty area and Lake’s willingness to launch blitz attacks. Lake shouldn’t wait for these situations to arise to turn up the heat or mix up his coverages or player deployments. The defense needs to start dictating the flow of the game instead of just moving in time with the opposing offense. Lake needs to take more calculated risks and be aggressive. Beyond blitzing, mixing in some 3-4 sub-fronts, using the big nickel, and rotating defensive linemen early and often are all ways to accomplish this. These are all things that Lake has the personnel to do and can do within reason, so it’s time to do it.

Atlanta has two All-Pro safeties. It’s time to take advantage of them and increase Cover 2 usage. If anyone can handle the pressure and has earned the right to do so, it’s him. The soft coverages have their place, but there is no reason why they should dominate at the pace they are at, and the idea that they lead to a bend and fail to break through the defense is only half the story. The Falcons allow opposing offenses to score on 50% of their offense (only Carolina is worse) while allowing a league average of 22.5 points per game. They slump in the first half and then improve in the second. The defense has been fortunate in recent weeks that the offense has scored points at a level that has led to teams being blown out, but they won’t be able to score more than 30 points in every game achieve.

Solving the running problem can also help with the pass rush problem. As I said, the Falcons’ lack of aggressiveness and penchant for easy boxing hurt them on early downs and allowed offenses to get into favorable third-down situations. It’s much harder to overwhelm the passer when he only has to gain three yards instead of seven. In these situations, everything is faster, from route development to the quarterback drop. If Atlanta wants to give their pass rush any chance, they need to stop the run early.

Atlanta faces a major test. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are the Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier of the Pacific Northwest, and both will enjoy this run defense if it looks anything like the one we saw in the previous six weeks. Seattle’s backfield is talented, but the scheme and offensive line are nothing special. Lake has everything he needs to make meaningful changes, and if there isn’t progress, it’s on the leadership of the assembled players.

Coaches can only do so much with the talent they’re given, and that’s evident when you look at the team’s pass rush situation. But we know the players on this squad can do it against the run; We just saw it last year. It’s up to Jimmy Lake to put them in the best position to succeed. Will he do that next Sunday? We’ll have to wait and see.