The College Football Playoff, national championship and our experts’ midseason Heisman picks

How much has the outlook for the college football season changed since last season?

It may not feel like much, but The athleteThe consensus midseason national championship pick received zero preseason votes two months ago, and the Heisman Trophy favorite is now a running back from a Group 5 team.

We interviewed 28 of them in August The athlete‘s college football writers and editors for their preseason national title, playoff and Heisman predictions. After seven eventful weeks of the regular season, we asked 30 writers and editors for their latest thoughts on the outcome of the 2024 college football season. Here are the results – and how opinions have changed.

Who will win the national championship?

Fifteen of our 30 voters predict Texas, the top-ranked team in the AP Poll, will win its first national championship since 2005 — a big change after the Longhorns received zero votes in the preseason. Ohio State, our preseason favorite with more than half the votes in August, is still in second place with 11 votes despite last week’s loss to Oregon, which received just two votes after receiving three in the preseason had. Obviously, most of our staff believes the Buckeyes are capable of exacting revenge in the Big Ten title game and beyond.

Clemson and Georgia rounded out our national championship selections with one vote each. We asked one voter for each team to explain their choice:

Why Texas?

The Longhorns were the most complete team in the country this season, ranking 11th in yards per game on offense and first in yards per game allowed on defense. They dominated Michigan on the road, they dominated their rival Oklahoma in Dallas, and they have a chance to get a clean sweep at home against Georgia this week. They also have depth, as the offense hasn’t missed a beat since Arch Manning had to replace starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for two weeks, and it doesn’t even feel like they’ve even reached their ceiling yet. —Matt Brown

Why Ohio State?

The Buckeyes were my preseason pick, and it’s hard to move on from that after playing another top-5 team on the road in what was essentially a draw. I’d like to see more of Ohio State’s supposedly vaunted defense, but the Oregon matchup could be a pivotal point where defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and the Buckeyes get a better idea of ​​how to play against elite competition. The loss of left tackle Josh Simmons is concerning. Maybe I’ll feel different if Texas beats Georgia on Saturday. I still think Ryan Day and Ohio State are accomplishing their mission. –Ralph Russo

Why Oregon?

We were all excited to see how Oregon would handle the situation in a top matchup against Ohio State, and boy, did the Ducks live up to the hype. Dan Lanning’s team picked up the decisive win and have officially caught everyone’s attention as the frontrunner to do it. Yes, it’s hard to pick against Texas given how the Longhorns have played so far. But Dillon Gabriel has the experience Oregon needs down the stretch, and the Ducks’ game plan looks good for them to win the Big Ten and secure a coveted first-round bye. – Grace Raynor

Why Georgia?

Talent and continuity win. No team is among the elite this year, but Georgia isn’t far off. Despite their weaknesses, the Bulldogs are a good choice. I can’t believe I’m the only one who picked her. Games are won on the line of scrimmage, and Texas may be the only team that can match the Bulldogs’ front lines on both sides of the ball. Carson Beck can still play his way up to QB1 in the NFL draft next year, and if he does, it will be because of his ability and not because his receivers made plays for him. He also has a solid running game to back him up. —David Ubben

Why Clemson?

It’s hard to blame anyone who took Clemson seriously after Georgia hit the afterburners in the season opener, but the Tigers have been going strong since then thanks to a strong defense, a strong workhorse in Phil Mafah and steady play from quarterback Cade Klubnik , who has thrown just one interception since Malaki Starks’ highlight-reel pick in Week 1. With tighter turnarounds and less certain matchups than its four-team predecessor, the 12-team playoff will reward multi-dimensional teams that know how to peak in December. Despite all the concerns about Dabo Swinney’s program’s cap lowering in recent years, these are two areas where you can still count on Clemson. —Eric Single

What does our forecast model say?

Ohio State still leads the national championship race in Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff prediction model, winning the national title in 21 percent of our simulations. The Buckeyes are followed by Georgia (16 percent), Texas (15 percent), Oregon (11 percent), Penn State (10 percent), Alabama (8 percent), Miami (5 percent) and Clemson (5 percent).

Who will lose in the national title game?

Texas is not only our favorite choice for the national championship, but also our favorite runner-up. 26 of 30 voters chose the Longhorns to advance to the national title game in Atlanta, with 11 of those voters calling for a loss in Texas.

Including the aforementioned championship vote for Clemson, our staff voted to allow only five teams to participate in the national title game. Texas vs. Ohio State (16) is the most common matchup with more than half the votes, while Oregon vs. Texas (six) is the only other pair to receive more than two votes.

Who we pick for the playoffs

Even though there is still half of the season left, our predictions are not very different. Only 18 teams received at least one vote to advance to the 12-team playoffs, with Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Penn State and Miami playing 30-for-30. Surprisingly, Oregon was left out of one ballot but is still considered a near lock, along with Georgia (29 votes) and Clemson (28).

Alabama (24), Iowa State (22) and Notre Dame (20) appeared on at least two-thirds of the ballots. And kudos to Indiana, which appeared on three ballots in Curt Cignetti’s first season – after certainly not appearing on any of them in the preseason.

The two teams eliminated from the playoff race are Utah (71.4 percent of the preseason ballot) and Florida State (67.9 percent), which are currently nowhere on the ballot.

Who will receive automatic playoff bids?

After five ACC teams received conference championship votes in the preseason, only two received votes midseason: Miami (19 of 30) and Clemson (11). No one chose a sleeper pick like Pitt (6-0 overall) or SMU (5-1).

Utah was the first choice of more than half of our staff in the preseason, but has fallen to zero for the season with two losses and the loss of quarterback Cam Rising. The two surprisingly undefeated teams, Iowa State and BYU, are now at the top. But Kansas State is still lurking right behind them.

Ohio State and Oregon were the only teams to receive votes in the preseason, and they remain the only teams to receive votes now, although Penn State and Indiana are undefeated.

And even though Oregon beat Ohio State last week, two-thirds of our staff likes the Buckeyes’ chances when they come to Indianapolis.

Texas has emerged as the odds-on favorite, receiving all but one vote to win the SEC Championship at midseason. The other went to Georgia, which visits the Longhorns on Saturday. Alabama defeated Georgia but did not receive a single SEC championship vote after losing to Vanderbilt and a close matchup against South Carolina.

All 30 voters chose Boise State as the top-ranked conference winner in the Group of 5. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in Ashton Jeanty and lost at Oregon by just three points. They have a crucial game next week at UNLV, which is also from the Mountain West in play.

Army, Navy and Liberty are the three other undefeated teams. Army and Navy both have a game in hand against Notre Dame to impress the selection committee, while Liberty continues to have a quiet season against one of the weakest squads in the country, making it a long shot despite continued wins.

Who will win the Heisman Trophy?

Eight players received votes last season, but now there are only four. The favorite to win the award in December, with 12 votes out of 30, is Jeanty, who also topped our mid-season poll, showing how our staff would currently vote. Jeanty has rushed for 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns in six games. If he keeps up this pace, he will be hard to beat.

Two quarterbacks from undefeated teams are on the list in Cam Ward (nine votes) and Gabriel (four votes), in addition to a handful of votes for Hunter (five votes), Colorado’s two-way star.

(Top Photos: Gregory Shamus and Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)