The trend shows a continuous price increase

On October 18, Friday, the week ended with a continuous upward trend in alumina prices. In fact, most other aluminum raw materials, with the exception of alumina, saw prices decline.

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Alumina gained another RMB 51 per tonne, rising to a new high of RMB 4,607 ($647) per tonne. In Shandong and Guizhou provinces, the price is 4,600 RMB per ton (range 4,550-4,650 RMB) and RMB

4,440 per tonne (between 4,330 and 4,550 RMB), with 50 RMB added to yesterday’s prices in both provinces. In Henan, Shanxi and Guangxi, alumina prices increased by another RMB 75, averaging RMB 4,625, RMB 4,700 and RMB 4,575 per ton, respectively.

The weather-related disruption to bauxite supplies from Guinea was exacerbated by the Guinean tariff blockade, which led to a continuous rise in the price of alumina in China.

“We can confirm that the tariff on bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) is currently suspended. We request clarity from Customs on the reason for these actions and are working to resolve this issue as quickly as possible,” GAC owner Emirates Global Aluminum officially stated to the media.

In December 2022, Indonesia said it would ban bauxite exports from June 2023 to boost its domestic processing and refining offensive.

“The government is committed to realizing sovereignty over natural resources and increasing value creation in the country, especially in terms of creating as many jobs as possible and increasing foreign exchange, as well as fairer economic growth,” said Indonesian President Joko Widodo during the Announcement. Since then, Guinea has become China’s main supplier of alumina. Imports doubled between 2000 and 2023 to almost 100 million tons and rose another 13 percent in the first eight months of this year.

Speculation that Guinea could follow Indonesia’s path was sparked when GAC signed a deal with the West African country to build a large aluminum refinery – the second in the country after the Friguia refinery owned by Moscow-based Rusal (MCX: RUAL), which also has two bauxite mines in operation.

However, even with the current restrictions, aluminum smelters in Yunnan Province are not expected to limit production until the end of this year due to good water availability and therefore sufficient hydropower supplies. This means they can continue to increase production during a period of good profitability.

On the other hand, there does not appear to be a shortage of alumina in China as the country continues to export significant quantities to Russia. Exports to Russia rose 41% year-on-year to 1 million tonnes in January-April, turning China from a net importer to a net exporter of the intermediate product.

Aluminum ingots

In contrast, A00 aluminum ingot lost RMB 260 per ton and cost an average of RMB 20,500 per ton, while low-carbon aluminum lost RMB 252 per ton, translating to a price of RMB 21,396 per ton. Prices in the provinces fell between RMB 220 and 270 per ton, with a range between RMB 20,320 and 20,550 per ton. High-purity aluminum ingots (both 99.99 percent and 99.96 percent) lost RMB 300 per ton at a price of RMB 27,500 and RMB 28,500 per ton, respectively.

ADC12 and A380 lost RMB 100 per ton (average price RMB 20,800 per ton and RMB 21,800 per ton, respectively), while A356 and A360 lost RMB 250 per ton (average price RMB 20,950 per ton and RMB 21,100 per ton, respectively). .