Fantasy Premier League: Given Alisson’s injury, is it worth letting a goalkeeper go on a free transfer?

Liverpool’s injury Alisson (£5.5m) against Crystal Palace caused a stir in the Fantasy Premier League and managers are now looking for a suitable replacement.

Since the Brazilian is expected to be out for around six weeks, the question naturally arises: who should you bring in instead?

But a less obvious question also arises: What is the best strategy when it comes to free transfers and goalkeepers?

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An evolving strategy

Typically in the FPL, transfers are only made to the goalkeeper position outside of a wildcard period in the event of significant injuries. Other than that, it is usually considered a waste of a transfer.

This is because the points cap for goalkeepers in a Premier League season is usually lower than at other positions. That’s why managers prioritize the positions that give them the most points.

There are traditionally three main strategies when selecting goaltenders early in the season or on wildcards:

1. Premium = £5.5m set and forget it
2. Two = rotating goalkeepers worth £4.5m
3. Cheap = Pick worth £4.5m and Backup worth £4.0m

First, managers at this position would spend more money on one of the most expensive goalkeepers in the industry. The only downside is that it uses a slot from a premium team.

The theory is that you play this pick in every game and they should keep a number of clean sheets over the course of the season, generally with a cap of six points. There is little motivation to change this choice – other than the need to free up money – as even the more demanding games can be low-key affairs that in turn result in clean sheets.

For option two, it is important to take a look at the upcoming games to find two cheaper goalkeepers whose games fit well together, or even a home/away pairing. The danger here is that you move points around the bench and don’t get the rotation right. This approach has brought me little joy in my own FPL career, so it’s a strategy I avoid.

Scenario three is the cheapest offer, but it needs to be carefully considered to find a club where support is available at the cheapest price. In this situation, managers should hope that the accumulation of saves and bonus points outweighs the temporary lack of clean sheet potential.

The picks must be carefully executed as they can utilize two of a maximum of three potential slots from each side, preventing more exciting doubling at other positions.

However, goalkeeping strategies could change as managers can now amass up to five free transfers. This could encourage some managers to remain consistent in their attacking decisions and instead aim for good defensive runs with goalkeeper transfers.

This may be a more sensible option for managers to implement option three and opt for a cheap starting goalkeeper – perhaps without selecting a replacement from the same club.

Look carefully at the game flows and try to use goalkeeper transfers to get in and out of potential groups of clean sheets if you have managed to get at least three transfers to the bench.

Who to include instead of Alisson?

Nottingham Forest Matz Sels (£4.5m) is in solid form with two goals conceded this season and just six, but is also listed as an injury concern.

Alisson’s understudy Caoimhin Kelleher (£4.4m) is an option as his replacement – he missed the win against Crystal Palace with the third pick due to illness Vitezslav Jaros (£4.0m) forced to represent. However, Liverpool have a difficult run of games ahead of them at this stage, playing Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa in the next four games before Alisson is expected to return.

If you want to stay invested at this premium price, David Raya (£5.6m) remains the natural replacement, despite conceding in his last two home games against newly promoted Leicester City and Southampton.

Mark Flekken (£4.5m) was the first choice for the budget of those managers who played the wildcard ahead of FPL Gameweek 6, and the same goes for Gameweek 8. He is still waiting for his first clean sheet of the season, but is leading the way with 33 saves and proves its versatility in ways to return the imagination.

Brentford have great long-term commitments until Gameweek 14, meaning he is not just a short-term player. During this time his team has home games against Ipswich Town, Bournemouth and Leicester City.

With Brentford midfielder Bryan Mbeumo (£7.5m) is already a lock on most teams and chooses Flekken’s replacement Hakon Valdimarsson (£4.0m) could lead to inflexibility down the line.

Everton’s Jordan Pickford (£4.8m) is a potential budget option. It falls into this category after two price drops since the start of the season. Defensive injuries meant the Toffees had a terrible defensive start to the season, but since then they have conceded just two goals in their last three games, with Pickford saving a penalty in their last game against Newcastle United.

His backups total £4.0m but that could block an attempt to double the attackers Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) And Dwight McNeil (£5.7m) both of whom started the season strongly.

I would also keep an eye on Fulham’s Bernd Leno (£5.0m)who has great basic numbers. He kept one clean sheet and conceded eight goals. Crucially, Fulham have conceded just nine big chances to score this season – the fewest of any team – ahead of Spurs, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, who have conceded 12 big chances.

Fulham’s attacking players remain popular in the game. Even in this case, I would refuse to bring a backup Steven Benda (£4.0m) with a wild card at his side.

(Top photo: Alisson after his injury against Palace; Alex Pantling via Getty Images)