NOAA’s 2024-25 winter forecast is out. Here’s what to expect in Minnesota.

MINNEAPOLIS – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook Thursday, revealing what Minnesotans can expect weather-wise in the coming months.

The forecast for this winter – the months of December, January and February – calls for warm and dry weather in the southern United States and colder and snowier than average conditions in the north.

The odds are slightly more favorable than average temperatures, especially in western Minnesota.

Precipitation – generally snow – is expected to be above average along the same route. The average amount of snow is between 50 and 55 inches. Last year, the Twin Cities grew about three feet.

“I think a lot of people were hoping, at least that convinced me, that we would have a winter like that again (last year), but there’s basically no chance of it happening again,” WCCO NEXT weather meteorologist said Mike Augstyniak.

Cool sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific — a pattern called La Niña — tend to bring this type of weather to the U.S. during the winter. But not all La Niña winters go like this.

Two recent examples are the winter of 2011-2012 and the winter of 2016-2017.

Both years saw a moderate to weak La Niña pattern, and the long-range forecast for both years called for colder and snowier weather in the Twin Cities. But both years were extremely mild and fairly snow-free.

It’s a reminder that there are many competing factors at play and seasonal forecasts like this are just the most likely outcome.