The Death of Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar and the Future of the Middle East

JJust as the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah a month ago opened new opportunities for peace in the Middle East, Thursday’s death of long-secretive Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar accelerates the Middle East’s transformation toward a safer and more prosperous future.

To assess the possibilities, it is important to understand Sinwar’s importance as a leader. There is no doubt that the elimination of Sinwar is an opportunity, not a tragedy. Sinwar was no ordinary terrorist. He was known for his brutality against Gazans and Israelis alike. Sinwar, an early Hamas member, became known among his fellow Gazans in the 1980s as the “Butcher of Khan Younis” for his unique cruelty in punishing Palestinians accused of collaborating with Israel. After Israel arrested Sinwar in 1988, Sinwar spent two decades in Israeli prisons learning to read and speak Hebrew fluently, studying Israeli history and society, and mastering the workings of Israel’s political and military systems.

Even in prison, Sinwar remained a leader of Hamas, which violently seized control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 by expelling the democratically elected Palestinian Authority and often throwing Palestinian Authority and Fatah officials off roofs. And after Sinwar was released in a prisoner swap and returned to Gaza in 2011, Sinwar’s reputation as bloodthirsty increased, including by killing a senior Hamas commander for homosexuality, despite pleas from other Hamas leaders for leniency.

No one should mourn Sinwar’s death, especially not the Palestinians. He treated the residents of Gaza as if they were all ready to be martyrs – only he never asked them if they wanted to be martyrs. In fact, the deaths of over 40,000 Gazans since last year should be attributed to Sinwar, who appeared to have no strategy to win the war he single-handedly started, other than the foolish hope that Iran would save him (which it didn’t was the case). t) or the belief that small protests among far-left groups on U.S. college campuses would pressure Israel to end its election campaign.

Most importantly, the elimination of Sinwar is accompanied by the degradation of Hamas – with the destruction of 23 of Hamas’s 24 battalions as well as a significant part of its military infrastructure (weapons depots, weapons laboratories and production facilities, and tunnels), including 90% of Hamas’s. of Hamas rockets – revives long-dormant possibilities for peace and brings closer the chances for peace and prosperity in the region. They may seem impossible and distant today, but Sinwar’s death creates a moment to be cherished.

None of this will happen overnight. It is hard to believe that Israel would immediately end all military operations, as some optimistic reports suggest, especially given that Hamas still holds many Israeli hostages. But Israel has an interest in ensuring that its remarkable military and intelligence successes are translated into political outcomes. And Israel is in a position to declare that, based on its military successes, it is ready to end the war in Gaza provided the hostages are released. Hamas may not respond immediately, but Israel can reframe the problem and remind the world of the hostages and that it is Hamas that continues to subject Gaza’s population to destruction. Furthermore, as long as Hamas and Hezbollah are unwilling to end the fighting, Israel can continue to destroy their warfighting capabilities and reduce the chance that they could ever again pose an existential threat to Israel’s survival. Israel has already dramatically weakened Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance.” This serves America’s interests in the region, as does the elimination of as many terrorists on the US most wanted list in recent months.

The opportunities for viable political, diplomatic and economic plans for long-term peace and prosperity in the region are closer to realization than ever before, but key participants, and in particular Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, must muster the political will to seize these opportunities. He cannot allow nationalists in his coalition to define what is possible.

The long-term political, diplomatic and economic possibilities are enticing, starting with the political stabilization and economic development of a demilitarized Gaza Strip. Gaza is finally ready to free itself from Hamas’ despotic rule, opening up the real possibility for the people of Gaza of a future filled with hope rather than endless wars and despair.

With the exception of a few far-right voices, few in Israel want to be stuck in Gaza forever, responsible for three million Palestinians and facing likely uprisings. Arab states could play a transitional role in managing and providing security and serve as a bridge to a yet-to-emerge viable Palestinian alternative. The Palestinian Authority is too weak and corrupt to play this role today, and comprehensive reforms are required if it is ever to credibly govern a Palestinian state.

But the potential for economic development should not be ignored either, because Gaza’s great economic potential is undeniable. In 2018, one of us, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, supported Jared Kushner at the Peace to Prosperity conference in Bahrain, which promoted the Abraham Accords and a global investment fund to boost the economies of the Palestinian and neighboring Arab states and finance a 5- Billion-dollar transport corridors have been unveiled connecting the West Bank and Gaza. We have seen firsthand how leading Arab business leaders have sought to capitalize on Gaza’s many natural advantages and the entrepreneurial dynamism of its people.

The potential for long-term political and economic stabilization of the Gaza Strip – as well as a potential Hezbollah-free Lebanon on Israel’s northern border – is strengthened by the extraordinary diplomatic realignment of the Middle East and the increasing alignment with Israel against a common adversary: ​​Iran, today is weaker, deprived of its proxy groups and exposed as increasingly toothless. This realignment was the central tenet of Kushner’s Abraham Accords, and the Biden administration has continued building this emerging coalition with a potential U.S.-Saudi defense deal and associated Saudi normalization with Israel. But treaty or no treaty, the direction is already clear, as Israel, the Gulf Arab states and its allies become increasingly dynamic magnets for business investment, entrepreneurial talent and modernization, while Iran and its allies fall far behind.

In 2018, Sinwar told the citizens of Gaza: “We will tear down the border.” [with Israel] and rip their hearts out of their bodies.” In fact, borders with Israel are being closed across the Middle East, but not in the way Sinwar intended.