Betting on (by) Dummies: A loss and an over for the Chiefs in Georgia against Texas are overdue

Our Browns writer Zac Jackson took a break from chronicling this familiar form of misery to do the picks this week with Chicago columnist Jon Greenberg, who is trying to put together a budget to buy the White Sox.

GREENBERG (5-2 last week, 24-16 overall): I’m a little surprised I went 3-0 in the NFL considering I skipped layup bets on “my” teams, the Bears and Steelers. I don’t know if I overestimated the Jaguars and Raiders or underestimated Chicago and Pittsburgh, but I suspect it was a little bit of both.

But victories are victories. (I’m 11-3 overall in the last two weeks, no big deal.) I didn’t think the bills would go through late Monday night, that’s for sure. But somehow they survived.

Let’s flip our usual script and talk about the NFL first, because I can’t imagine how excited Cleveland is for the ALCS; I mean the Battle of Ohio. Did they cancel school? Is Deshaun Watson the least popular athlete in Cleveland history? Has he already overtaken José Mesa?

What a perfect time for Joe Burrow to come to town and try to actually win a game there. I played against the Bengals in the Meadowlands last week, and while I know it will depend on his defense to get through, if Burrow can’t win in Cleveland this time, he should just hang up his cleats and head to Athens move back to work as a bartender at Tony’s. Maybe I’m biased against the Browns from reading you and Jason Lloyd, but give me this Bengals -5.5.

JACKSON (4-3, 20-20): Burrow has never won in Cleveland. It feels like I’ve never won an NFL pick, at least not since Burrow played for Athens High.

Under 41.5 in Browns-Bengals changes that. The Browns will show up and play defense. It’s going to be a grind. I’ll ride this wave of Browns underpants until it stops. As for your question specifically about Watson, I just want to say that the whole thing is just as fun as it seems. I’m looking forward to the reaction of the home crowd on Sunday.

This is my only Athens, Ohio pick of the week. Although I’m tempted to take our shared alma mater, Ohio University, at a key revenge spot +4 in Miami Ohio, this one narrowly missed out on making my final list.

I stink at the NFL, as mentioned above, but I’ll take it Seattle +3 This week should be a high scoring week and I’ll take that Niners -1.5to. The Chiefs are likely to win the Super Bowl again, but right now they’re overdue for a loss.

GRÜNBERG: I don’t love the board this week and nothing really catches my eye. The away favorites were 9-0 last week, and the Bengals are one of six this week. Of the remaining five, the only other one I’m happy to take is this Chargers -2.5 in Arizona on Monday Night Football. I don’t like betting against the Steelers, but if I did, I’d also take Aaron Rodgers and his best buddy Davante Adams -2 in QB-confused Pittsburgh.

Otherwise, I’ll take two essential pick-’em home teams: the Niners -1.5 against the Chiefs with you and them Vikings -1.5 about Dan Campbell’s leg-chewing Lions in an NFC North slobber-knocker. I originally had the Lions but flipped them. I want to see Detroit play without Aidan Hutchinson. Should be a fun game.

So let’s go to college. Who do you like? I can read your mind: They win the Under at Bowling Green-Kent State, right?

JACKSON: Of course I am. I expect Bowling Green to play its backup (third, actually) quarterback. It’s the week before BG-Toledo, a backyard rivalry similar to Auburn-Alabama, with more violence in the parking lot. Give me under 55.5 all day.

UCF is behind despite having some great offensive talent. UCF’s defense is No. 96 in the EPA against the pass, and that’s bad news against an Iowa State team that ranks in the top 20 in the EPA per pass and may have 11 or 12 wins. Iowa State -13 For me.

Let’s join in Kentucky-Florida under 43. This Kentucky defense is real. The rest is not good. Florida is better than most expected, but lost quarterback Graham Mertz. I just think it’s 17-16 either way.

Friday evening, autoplay on Purdue +27.5 Oregon got a big win over Ohio State and flew across the country in a short week. Hold your nose and do it.

GRÜNBERG: I can’t in good conscience bet on Purdue, but I understand the logic. I’m excited to see how many Oregon fans make the trip to West Lafayette, Indiana. I was at dinner with two of the Ducks faithful on Wednesday night, but I think the rest of their group died of dysentery. However, it should be a fun visit for Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel. I believe he was in Drew Brees’ recruiting class. Or was it Bob Grieses?

I’ll take that too BG-Kent under 55.5, and I continue my run with Army -15.5 via East Carolina at home. The Pirates suffered a 55-24 loss to Charlotte. (The 49ers are 17-point dogs over the Navy this week if you’re really interested in investing in our military.)

We know the Commodores are legit after they followed up their upset at Alabama with a win over Kentucky, but can they beat a MAC team by four touchdowns? This is this week’s piece: Vanderbilt -25.5 about Ball State.

And finally, let’s choose a game that people will actually watch. This is as square as it gets, but give me that Georgia-Texas over 55.5. Like many others, I was pleased with this overall result in Oklahoma-Texas last week, so I think America deserves the points here.

JACKSON: I want Georgia Moneyline +165. Who did Texas play?

(Of course I’m not afraid of being wrong)

I’m also leaning towards Northern Illinois -3 over Toledo at home. I’m not sure what happened in that Buffalo game a few weeks ago, but NIU may be the best team in the MAC by far.

GRÜNBERG: I’m not going to tell Matt Eberflus or Nick Saban to bet against their Rockets.

Jon Greenberg’s tips

Zac Jackson’s tips

(Photo by Quinn Ewers: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)