Nebraska vs. Indiana score prediction by an experienced football model

Big Ten football is back this weekend as Nebraska takes on No. 16 Indiana in a Week 8 college football matchup on Saturday. Let’s check the latest predictions for the game using an expert football model that picks winners and projects results.

Nebraska has won two straight games since the loss to Illinois, the only blemish on its 5-1 record this season, including a 2-1 finish in Big Ten play, and a good performance in this crucial road game needed against the resurgent Hoosiers to keep his conference hopes alive.

Indiana is 6-0 for the second time ever under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, thanks to an offense that ranks second nationally in scoring at 47.5 points per game, behind the play of quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who is averaging over 315 Passing yards gained, good for 10th in the FBS.

What does the analytics suggest for this Big Ten matchup?

To do that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Nebraska and Indiana will fare in this Week 8 college football game.

So far, the Models are sticking with the Hoosiers to defeat the Cornhuskers this week.

SP+ predicts Indiana is expected to beat Nebraska 25 points to 20 and win the game by an expected margin of 5.2 points.

The model gives the Hoosiers a 63 percent chance of winning overall.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a win rate of 51.9, after being 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Indiana is a 6.5-point favorite against Nebraska.

FanDuel gives the total score for the game at 50.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -230 for Indiana and +195 for Nebraska.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

According to the latest spread consensus picks for the game, many bettors are choosing the Hoosiers over the Cornhuskers.

Indiana is receiving 63 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 37 percent of bets assume Nebraska will either win the game in an upset or keep the score within the line.

Other analytical models also suggest the Hoosiers remain undefeated against the Cornhuskers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Indiana is projected to win the game outright in most 75.7 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner of the remaining 24.3 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Indiana is expected to perform 10.9 points better than Nebraska on the same field.

Indiana ranks fourth among Big Ten teams with a 46 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.2 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model gives Nebraska an overall win projection of 7.1 games and a 1.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.

When: Sat., Oct. 19
Time: 12pm ET | 11am CT
TV: Fox network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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