ESPN’s FPI favors Notre Dame against Georgia Tech this weekend

Georgia Tech picked up another ACC win over rival North Carolina, sending them on a four-game losing streak. It was a game controlled by the Yellow Jackets throughout until the Tar Heels scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and tied the game. As you know by now, Jamal Haynes had the game-winning 68-yard touchdown run that helped Georgia Tech to a 5-2 overall record and its third win in conference play.

Georgia Tech is one win away from securing bowl eligibility after defeating UNC. This week presents a different challenge and the Yellow Jackets will have their work cut out for them against No. 12 Notre Dame at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Yellow Jackets defense just had one of its most promising performances in key areas where it was struggling: sacks and turnovers. In the win against North Carolina, they had 3.5 sacks and two turnovers. They need to be disruptive again if they want to create excitement.

Notre Dame has won four straight games since a 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. Defense was a key factor for the Irish. In three of the four contests, Notre Dame was able to hold its opponents to under ten points. The Fighting Irish just had one of their best games of the season against Stanford, amassing just 200 yards of offense and seven points. In the win against the Cardinal, Howard Cross III had two sacks, Rylie Mills had one sack, Ben Minich had a half sack and Loghan Thomas had a half sack. The Fighting Irish are good at chasing the quarterback and forcing the opposing offense to make mistakes.

Georgia Tech is a heavy underdog in their matchup against Notre Dame, with the spread now at 11.5 and favoring the Fighting Irish by more than a touchdown. ESPN’s FPI gives the Yellow Jackets just a 16.7% chance of winning the game. The Yellow Jackets moved up four spots in the rankings after their win over North Carolina and are now at No. 42. Their six-win chance has also increased to 92.7%. Georgia Tech remains the No. 8 team in the ACC despite their recent wins, trailing Miami, Clemson, Louisville, SMU, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and California. Notre Dame leads the all-time series at 30-6-1 and has won three straight games since 2021. Georgia Tech’s last win against Notre Dame was in 2007.

A win for the Yellow Jackets can go a long way toward building momentum and confidence for the remainder of their tough schedule through the end of the season. Georgia Tech faces a good defense and a team with College Football Playoff aspirations. They are good at every position and have great player depth. It would be a major victory in the Brent Key era.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytics model to look at matchups and predict results. In ESPN’s own words: “FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. FPI’s ultimate goal is not to rank teams 1-128, but rather to correctly predict games and season results. If.” Vegas has ever released the performance rankings it uses to determine its lines. They would probably look pretty similar to FPI.