Portugal: Communities with more immigrants have lower crime rates

A recent CNN Portugal interview with expert Catarina Reis Oliveira, a sociologist at the ISCSP University of Lisbon, highlighted the inaccuracy of certain narratives about immigration and crime in the country and revealed some more precise statistics.

Oliveira analyzed a database of crimes recorded by the Portuguese authorities and published by the country’s General Directorate of Justice Policy and concluded: “The idea that increased immigration brings more crime is a myth“.

Their analysis is based on cross-comparison of crime data with immigration numbers. The results show that in the municipalities with the highest absolute number of foreign citizens, the number of crimes decreased between 2011 and 2023. In addition, the crime rate for the overall population is lower in communities where the foreign population makes up a larger proportion. These facts contradict recent claims made by a far-right party in Portugal about the link between crime and immigration.

According to Oliveira, the growing polarization of opinions on migration in Portuguese society is the result of inadequate data analysis. She notes that many variables demonstrate the importance of foreign workers in the sustainability of the country’s social security system and in curbing population decline and aging, and emphasizes the importance of ensuring that policymakers are aware of these facts and statistics – in contrast to be guided by popular narratives that are not based in reality when making public policy.

The foreign population in Portugal has experienced a remarkable increase in the last three years, reaching more than 1 million immigrants in 2023. Foreign residents now make up 9.8% of the country’s population.