College football midseason bowl projections: How the new CFP format impacts the remainder of the bowl season

The expanded College Football Playoff will give the sport something that no other sport has ever achieved: a true Selection Sunday.

Men’s basketball capped its regular season by unveiling a spreadsheet in which millions of people scribbled on paper and analyzed every 5-on-12 matchup. Well, college football will reach its climax on December 8th when 12 teams qualify for the new playoff format.

Here are the details:

1. A selection committee ranks the top 25 teams in order. The 12-team CFP field consists of the top-ranked five conference champions and seven major teams.
2. The top four conference champions receive a bye in the first round. The fifth champion and the seven overall teams will compete at four locations from December 20th to 21st. Seeds 5-8 Host seeds 9-12.
3. With four bowl games, the quarterfinals will take place on December 31 (Fiesta) and January 1 (Peach, Rose, Sugar), while the Orange and Cotton will host the semifinals on January 9 and 10, respectively. The championship will take place on January 20th in Atlanta.
4. But the playoffs are just one part of college football’s postseason. The other system consists of 34 bowls with locations from the Bahamas to Boise, Idaho. The power conferences have bowl contracts for their non-playoff teams, while the Group of 5 conferences have a mix of bowl contracts and ESPN events that make up matchups.

There’s a lot to digest, so let’s take a look at our mid-season predictions.

CFP breakdown

According to Stewart Mandel’s latest playoff predictions, Texas (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Miami (ACC) and Iowa State (Big 12) will receive first-round byes. Boise State (Mountain West) is the fifth conference champion and a No. 12 seed.

The overall qualified teams (in order) are Oregon, Penn State, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame and LSU. Oregon hosts Boise State, followed by LSU at Penn State, Notre Dame at Georgia and Alabama at Clemson. ESPN will make its selections for the night’s contests, while TNT will broadcast the other two games.

The winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and these rankings are based on the proximity of the champion and the league’s historical relationship. As SEC champions, Texas will play the Clemson-Alabama winner in the Sugar Bowl on January 1st. Ohio State will face either Georgia or Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl on January 1st. Due to the proximity, ACC champion Miami will face the Penn State-LSU winner in the Peach Bowl. The Big 12 had a relationship with the Fiesta Bowl, and Iowa State will face the winner Oregon-Boise State on December 31st.

Bowl glitch

This bowl season is like no other, and it’s not just because of the expanded playoffs. The realignment caused the Pac-12 Conference to implode, but it — and every other league — still had two years left on its bowl contracts. To maintain these relationships, the Pac-12 affiliated bowls agreed to select former Pac-12 teams. Their new leagues’ bowls will not be allowed to select former Pac-12 teams.

It’s confusing, so here’s an example: The Alamo Bowl has the top pick for the Big 12 and Pac-12 after the College Football Playoff. It can select all 16 Big 12 teams, but only 12 will be considered for its Big 12 slot. The four former Pac-12 teams in the Big 12 (along with the four Big Ten newcomers, two ACC newcomers and two Pac-12 holdovers) are eligible for the Pac-12 spot. What happens in San Antonio creates a ripple effect in the other bowls too.

Suppose the Alamo Bowl wants its Pac-12 selection to select new Big 12 member Colorado and Deion Sanders. But the best Big 12 teams available may be Kansas State and Texas Tech, and both of those teams played Colorado during the regular season. Unless a rematch is desired, the Alamo Bowl could choose USC from the Big Ten or Washington State, which remains in the new-look Pac-12.

Or the Alamo Bowl could pair Colorado with BYU. But that creates problems for the Big 12 because the Pop Tarts Bowl in Orlando is the next bowl on their schedule. If Kansas State has the Big 12’s best record outside of CFP selection Iowa State, it would be overtaken for the second time since the Wildcats appeared in the Pop Tarts Bowl last year.

While bowls have selection autonomy due to their Big 12 agreement, leagues can influence their decisions to ensure certain teams receive top spots. This happened last year when the ACC pressured its top-tier bowl partners to take its top teams like NC State and Louisville and bypass non-football member Notre Dame.

Every league is different. The SEC, in consultation with its teams and the bowls, decides which teams go where. The Big Ten allows bowlers to choose their team, but only after several rounds of discussions.

(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The athletePhotos: Don Juan Moore / Getty)