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NOAA’s 2024-25 winter forecast maps show what to expect in Rhode Island

NOAA’s 2024-25 winter forecast maps show what to expect in Rhode Island

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Rhode Island is expected to have a milder winter this year, according to a federal weather report.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter forecast, there is a nearly 50/50 chance that Rhode Island and most of New England will be warmer than normal during the months of December, January and February.

Last year, NOAA also predicted a warmer-than-average winter for Rhode Island as it experienced its first El Niño winter in years. La Niña this year is predicted to dominate weather patterns this winter.

The forecasters’ discussion said there was a 71% chance of La Niña occurring from September to November, with that probability continuing from January to March 2025.

What is the NOAA forecast for Rhode Island this fall?

A NOAA forecast also showed that Rhode Island, as well as the rest of New England, is expected to have above-average rainfall amounts for the remainder of the season, with a 33% to 40% chance in October, November and December.

The forecast says there is a 50% to 60% chance that Rhode Island will have above-average temperatures this fall.

What is La Nina?

La Nina, which means “little girl” in Spanish, is a weather pattern that can impact winter temperatures, according to NOAA.

“During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water into Asia,” NOAA said. “Off the west coast of America, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface… This cold water in the Pacific is driving the jet stream northward.”

As cold water in the Pacific pushes the jet stream north during La Niña, the southern United States may experience more droughts, while the Pacific Northwest and Canada experience heavy rainfall and flooding at the same time.

“Winter temperatures will be warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north” when La Nina is active in a portion of the U.S., NOAA said.

Seth Jacobson contributed to this report.

Rin Velasco is a trends reporter. She can be reached at [email protected].