Here’s what a La Niña winter could mean for the US

Meteorologists predict a weak La Niña is likely to occur this winter season, bringing warmer weather to southern states and a cooler, wetter winter to the northwestern United States.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is a 60 percent chance that La Niña will appear in November and last until January or March 2025.

The weather event is expected to disrupt weather patterns across the U.S. and affect how much rain and snow certain regions receive this season. It could also mean a more severe hurricane season, the agency warned.

The last time La Niña was seen in the Big Apple, there were warm conditions and little snow, although meteorologists warn that anything could happen due to the weather event.

What is a La Niña winter?

La Niña, or “little girl” in Spanish, refers to the periodic cooling of the waters of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America.

“La Niña means temperatures are cooler than average, while El Niño is warmer than average. It’s a global pattern that fluctuates from season to season,” Fox Forecast Center meteorologist Stephanie van Oppen told The Post.

The weather event typically occurs every three to five years. Last year, the US experienced the opposite effect – an El Niño – which brought very little snow to the Big Apple in addition to warm and wet conditions.

Although La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon, the weather event “can change our weather patterns based on the temperature of that section of the ocean,” van Oppen said.

What does this mean for the USA?

During La Niña events, cold water in the Pacific drives the jet stream north, often causing droughts in the southern United States and heavy rains that flood the northern part of the country and Canada.

“If La Niña conditions were to develop this winter, the Southeast could expect warmer-than-average temperatures and a drier-than-average winter,” van Oppen said. “Across the Northern Plains, in places like Montana, Colorado and the Midwest, temperatures could be cooler than average.”

“The Pacific Northwest and then the Great Lakes could also see a wetter than average winter,” van Oppen added.

In New York City, La Niña could mean a variety of things, according to van Oppen, who puts the Big Apple in a “boom-or-bust” scenario.

“It could mean a lot [of snow] or very, very little snow,” said van Oppen.

Historically, La Niña has brought both blizzards and just a few inches of snow to the five boroughs, so there’s no telling what kind of winter New York City will experience.

“It kind of brings us into question as to whether or not we have conditions that are conducive to large snow events or whether or not we’re going to be stuck in a snow drought,” van Oppen said.

States that could be most affected

The Pacific Northwest will likely bear the brunt of La Niña.

“You would most likely see above-average snowfall, which would also likely lead to cooler temperatures,” van Oppen said.

If La Niña occurs, states like Oregon, Washington and Idaho would likely see multiple weather systems move from the Pacific Ocean across the Pacific Northwest, bringing lots of rain and snow.

These conditions also have the potential to spread to the Great Lakes region, although they likely would not be as severely affected as northern West Coast states, van Oppen said.

When was the last time that happened?

The last time La Niña was seen in the United States was during the 2022-2023 winter season, when it brought warm and wet weather to New York City.

“All winter we only saw 2.3 inches of snowfall in Central Park. However, there have been other instances in the past where we have seen really heavy snowfalls, most notably the January 1995-1996 snowstorm that hit Central Park, which also occurred during a weak La Niña.”

The 2022-2023 season also marked the third consecutive year that the U.S. experienced La Niña conditions, a rare phenomenon that meteorologists call a “triple dip.”