Georgia vs. Texas Football Prediction: What the Analysis Says

The Game of the Week comes to us from Austin, where No. 1 Texas returns home to face No. 5 Georgia in Week 8 of college football. Let’s take a look at the updated predictions for the game from an expert model that will determine the winners.

Georgia is 5-1 overall and 3-1 in SEC play and will be hoping to avoid a costly loss in the second conference as the College Football Playoff selection committee will be closely watching how this game plays out if it is seeded 12 best teams later this year.

One of 11 undefeated college football teams, Texas earned a commanding 31-point win over Oklahoma that marked the return of quarterback Quinn Ewers to the helm of the nation’s seventh-ranked offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from computer prediction model Football Power Index.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times, utilizes key analytics from both teams and selects winners based on a projected point spread per game.

So far, the models have given the home team a significant lead over the visitors.

Most 76.3 percent of recent computer simulations of the matchup favor Texas as the clear winner.

This leaves Georgia as the expected winner of the remaining 23.7 percent of Sims.

And the model expects the Longhorns to win by double digits over the Bulldogs.

According to the model’s latest projection, Texas is expected to be 10.7 points better than Georgia with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

If so, that would be more than enough to cover the spread.

That’s because Texas is a 3.5-point favorite against Georgia, according to data from FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 56.5 points.

And the moneyline odds for the overall win were set at -190 for Texas and +160 for Georgia.

According to the latest spread consensus recommendations, bettors will choose the home team even when in doubt.

Texas receives 54 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the spread.

And the remaining 46 percent of bets assume Georgia will either win in an upset or keep the game within the tight line.

Texas ranks first among SEC teams with a 95.7 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.8 games, according to FPI data.

This model predicts Georgia will win 9.1 games and have a 68.5 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The college football rankings Football Power Index (FPI) and computer prediction model is a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games and use a combination of key analytics including past results, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule.

The teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but by a expected points lead per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (56)
2. Oregon (6)
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Georgia
6. Miami
7. Alabama
8. LSU
9. Iowa State
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas A&M
15. Boise State
16. Indiana
17. Kansas State
18. Ole Miss
19. Missouri
20. Pittsburgh
21. SMU
22. Illinois
23. army
24. Michigan
25. marine

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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