Which left-handed starting pitchers could they pursue?

Baseball’s free agency period doesn’t begin until the conclusion of the World Series. Those who were unable to play for a title this postseason, like the Texas Rangers, have the opportunity to use this window to improve their chances of doing so next year.

With that in mind, it’s time to discuss the Rangers’ free agency prospects. This week’s topic: pitching. Specifically, today’s topic is a look at which left-handed starters could pursue Texas.

Overview: The market for left-handed starters is top-heavy. However, the Rangers — who could see right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Andrew Heaney leave in free agency — also need starting depth in addition to Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter and the like.

The big fish: Blake Snell or Max Fried. Snell is a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Fried is a multiple All-Star and World Series champion. Both will sign lucrative nine-figure contracts with multi-year contracts.

The question, as it was on Wednesday when we profiled the top right-handed starters, is whether the Rangers can theoretically afford an arm of Snell’s or Fried’s caliber. Here’s a quick look at the math of it all:

• According to Baseball-Reference, the Rangers have committed $140.8 million to next year’s roster before Arbitration-eligible players, voting-eligible players and pre-arbitration players will be considered.
• Baseball-Reference estimates that the costs for the Rangers’ arbitration-eligible and pre-arbitration players (if each is adopted) will total just over $43 million. That brings Texas’ payroll next season to $184.5 million, and can rise if either Eovaldi ($20 million option) or backup David Robertson (mutual $7 million option) hypothetically opts out would engage again.
• The competitive balance tax threshold will be set at $241 million next year. The Rangers, who have exceeded that margin in each of the last two seasons and paid a tax on it, would be hit with a 50% tax if they become repeat offenders for the third consecutive season next year. That leaves the Rangers with a gap of approximately $56.5 million between their expected payroll for next season and the tax limit.

Snell, 31, could make an average annual salary of over $30 million. Fried, 30, shouldn’t be far behind. It wouldn’t leave Texas much wiggle room to rebuild its bullpen, retool its offense or maneuver during next year’s season.

However, there is one big wild card: Japanese left-hander Rōki Sasaki. It’s questionable whether NPB’s Chiba Lotte will field the phenom this offseason. However, if this is the case, the 23-year-old will be subject to MLB’s international free agency rules due to his age. The Rangers have a mid-range $6,261,600 to spend on international free agents in the 2025 window, and in September, Texas President of Baseball Operations Chris Young visited Japan to watch Sasaki pitch.

Sasaki would be the best free agent pitcher on the market this winter if drafted. However, if he were to wait until he was 25, he would have a significantly higher pool of players because at that point players are no longer subject to the restrictions of international free agency. For example: Shohei Ohtani signed a $2.3 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels as a 23-year-old, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a $325 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a 25-year-old.

He throws a 100 mph fastball, shined in the World Baseball Classic last spring and would give Texas a top hard-throwing player along with deGrom and Rocker for the foreseeable future. To get him, the Rangers would simply have to beat out a whole league of interested suitors.

The middleman: Yusei Kikuchi. Again, it’s a thin southpaw pool, but Kikuchi may be the best of the bunch among Snell, Fried and Sasaki. The 33-year-old has made 32 starts in consecutive seasons, had a 3.86 ERA in 2023 and a 4.05 ERA in 2024, and was available short-term on a contract in the $15 million range.

Alternatively: The Rangers could simply re-sign Heaney. He’s the same age as Kikuchi, could get a cheaper contract and is only marginally less effective; According to Baseball-Reference, Heaney has compiled 2.1 WAR to Kikuchi’s 3.2 WAR over the last two seasons.

The starter here is New York Mets left-hander Sean Manaea. The 32-year-old had a 3.47 ERA in the regular season and a 2.65 ERA in three postseason starts for the Mets. However, it’s possible he’s out of the Rangers’ comfort zone.

The value selection: It’s a grab bag of oft-injured veterans like John Means (who probably won’t return until 2026 after his second Tommy John surgery) and Matt Boyd (who performed well for the Cleveland Guardians in the second half of the regular season but suffered an injury had to undergo). several significant operations in the last two years). There are another number of left-handed hitters like Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzalez and Nick Martinez who are free agents and are still pending decisions on various options.

Martín Pérez – who pitched 135 innings for the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres this season – will also become a free agent. Round three, anyone?

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