Record number of deaths in the Russia-Ukraine war: What you should know | News about the Russia-Ukraine war

The war in Ukraine, a conflict that continues to expand, has been devastating and civilian casualties this summer reached their highest level since 2022.

How many people have been killed in the war since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022?

Here’s what we know:

How many people died in the war?

Last month, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing intelligence and undisclosed sources, reported a grim milestone, reporting that about a million Ukrainians and Russians had been killed or wounded.

Most of the dead were soldiers from both sides, followed by Ukrainian civilians.

According to government figures, three times as many people died as were born in Ukraine in the first half of 2024, the WSJ reported.

At the same time, experts warn of a bleak demographic future for Ukraine.

Population loss is one reason why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has refused to mobilize men ages 18 to 25, since most of them did not yet have children, according to Ukrainian officials. The permitted age range for the Ukrainian military is 25 to 60 years old.

How many are civilians?

Statistics vary.

In June, Ukrainian officials said “Russian invaders” had killed more than 12,000 civilians, including 551 children.

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) reported in February that as the war reached the two-year mark, more than 10,200 civilians were reported dead and nearly 20,000 injured.

The London-based charity Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) reported that as of September 23, 7,001 people had been killed and more than 20,000 civilians had been injured in Ukraine.

About 95 percent of civilian casualties occurred in populated areas, with the Donetsk region hardest hit, AOAV said.

However, these figures are the lowest estimates as the charity only records “accident-specific casualty figures” reported in English-language media, it said.

Last month, the NRC reported that Ukraine this summer recorded its highest number of civilian casualties in three months since 2022.

According to the NRC, more than 3,200 civilian casualties were recorded in Ukraine between June and August this year – an increase of 33.7 percent compared to the same period last year.

The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) also documented a sharp increase in civilian deaths and injuries over the summer.

Attacks in government-controlled areas from August 26 to September 6 left 64 civilians dead and 392 people injured, it said.

In August alone, 184 civilians were killed and 856 injured, the second highest monthly death toll of the year after July, when at least 219 civilians were killed and 1,018 injured.

Why did the number of victims in Ukraine increase in the summer?

Joachim Giaminardi, NRC advocacy manager in Ukraine, told Al Jazeera that the conflict had expanded.

“We are seeing an expansion of the conflict, both geographically and in the frequency and intensity of attacks,” Giaminardi said. “The people who are paying the price are civilians.”

Danielle Bell, the head of HRMMU, said in a statement last month that “powerful missiles and bombs have struck populated areas, killing and injuring civilians across the country.”

“Targeted attacks on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure have once again led to lengthy nationwide power outages, while recent attacks have destroyed or damaged hospitals, schools, supermarkets and key energy infrastructure.”

Were Russian civilians killed?

Yes, but Russia has suffered far fewer civilian deaths than Ukraine.

Russian civilians were killed in fighting in border areas.

Moscow has not released an official total number of victims.

Some state-affiliated media occasionally report civilian deaths.

Last August, the Moscow Times, citing independent news site 7×7, reported that 80 civilians had been killed since the invasion began. Two months ago, the Kremlin-affiliated TASS news agency reported that 31 people had been killed in Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Kursk.

How many Russian and Ukrainian soldiers were killed?

The death toll cannot be verified. More on that later. Let’s start with what was reported.

According to a late September report by Russian independent media outlet Mediazona, more than 71,000 Russian soldiers have been identified and confirmed dead in Ukraine.

Using open source research, Mediazona documented the names of killed Russian soldiers and verified the information against obituaries, contributions from relatives, statements from local authorities, and other public reports.

Leaked US documents suggest more Russian soldiers were killed than previously thought.

In July, The Economist reported, citing U.S. Department of Defense documents, that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers had been killed, injured or captured by mid-June.

“Russia’s casualties in Ukraine since 2022 dwarf the casualties of all its wars since World War II combined,” The Economist reported, referring to the wars in Chechnya, Afghanistan and Ukraine from 2014 to February 2022.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, more than 654,000 Russian soldiers have died as of October 1.

As for Ukrainian troops, the Russian Defense Ministry estimates that Kiev has lost nearly half a million troops, according to a report published last month on the RT news website.

However, according to Western estimates, around 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since February 2022.

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that Ukraine’s losses were five times higher than Russia’s, with Kiev losing at least 50,000 troops every month.

Both Russia and Ukraine are struggling with personnel problems.

A Ukrainian platoon commander quoted by the Reuters news agency estimated that only 60-70 percent of the brigade’s several thousand men were still on duty when the war began. The rest had been killed, wounded, or demobilized due to age or illness.

Why is the death toll so difficult to verify?

Marina Miron, a researcher at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera that governments do not publicly report their losses to avoid giving the enemy information about how effective their operations were.

During World War II, for example, both sides underestimated their losses by half and exaggerated the enemy’s losses by two to three times, she said.

A death is only confirmed once the body is found, and the responsible Ministry of Defense then sends a death notice to the family. However, many bodies were not recovered and are considered MIA (missing in action). They could be army deserters or have been captured, Miron said.

If a government does not officially recognize a soldier as dead, it can avoid the obligation to pay the families of the deceased, which has become a problem in Russia and Ukraine, she added.

The losses of non-state actors such as the Russian Wagner Group are not included in the available statistics.

What’s next for Ukraine?

Miron told Al Jazeera that she did not see the war as sustainable for Ukraine, which faces numerous problems: troop shortages, a struggling economy and its dependence on Western aid.

“Ukraine has no real strategy, neither does NATO,” she said.

While the Russians operate their equipment, Ukraine does not have enough troops who know how to operate Western weapon systems; Training them is time consuming. Training 20 pilots to operate F-16 fighter jets took more than a year, she said.

“Russia will have enough resources to carry on for a few people [of] years more. Ukraine does not have this time, and neither does NATO, because NATO itself is facing shortages of air defense systems,” Miron said, adding that Ukraine is not a priority for policymakers given the worsening Middle East crisis.

As Ukraine’s counteroffensive stalls, officials are seeking a diplomatic solution to end the war that would also involve Russia.

“Russia can hold out [war]but Ukraine can’t,” she said.