Republicans are pouring money into the Wisconsin Senate race. Democrats say it will be close

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Sensing an opportunity in swing state Wisconsin, Republicans are pouring money into an attempt to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in that state’s highly anticipated Senate race.

Democrats have also stepped up their efforts in the contest, which remains crucial to their hopes of retaining their majority in the Senate. They maintain an overall spending advantage and insist that competition will become increasingly fierce as Election Day approaches.

A loss in Wisconsin to Republican nominee Eric Hovde would make it extremely difficult to maintain the Democratic majority in a national environment where Republicans have far fewer seats to defend this year.

That prospect has Republicans feeling optimistic about the race. “It’s pretty clearly a jump ball right now,” said Republican strategist Alec Zimmerman, who worked on Sen. Ron Johnson’s winning 2022 campaign.

Democrats spent more on Republicans in the Wisconsin Senate race on Monday, $93 million to $69 million, according to AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending. Baldwin’s campaign accounts for more than a third of all Democratic advertising spending, while Hovde relies more heavily on outside groups.

But Republicans have invested more in advertising than Democrats going forward: $21 million in seats reserved between Monday and Nov. 5, compared to $15 million in seats reserved by Democrats. Nearly two-thirds of new GOP spending comes from the Senate Leadership Fund, the political action committee headed by the Senate minority leader Mitch McConnellwhich has reserved $13.1 million worth of commercials.

“The momentum is on my side,” Hovde said at a forum in Milwaukee last week. “I intend to win this race. I will win this race because I will continue to focus on what is important.”

Baldwin, who campaigned Monday in western Wisconsin with vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, said in a statement to The Associated Press that she was not surprised by the state of the race.

“We always knew the race was going to be closer,” Baldwin said. “That’s why I work every day to bring Wisconsinites together for my campaign. … I am confident we have the strength, momentum and message to win next month.”

Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff said Hovde has strengthened his support among the Republican base and has the money needed to spread his message, including outside funding. Hovde has loaned the campaign at least $13 million of his own money to spend on the race.

To win, Baldwin simply has to be herself and tout her record, Baldauff said.

“That’s one of her strengths and one of the things that sets this race apart from other Senate races across the country,” Baldauff said. “The fact that people know who she is, that she does what she says she’s going to do, and that she’s showing up all over Wisconsin.”

Zimmerman, the Republican strategist, said Baldwin faces the toughest political environment of any of her three races. Hovde has an advantage on issues like the economy and immigration and must continue to focus on those to win, Zimmerman said.

“Wisconsin has always been on a knife edge,” Zimmerman said. “Fifty-fifty elections are the rule here, and it has always been the exception. What you see here is a return to that principle.”

Four of the last six presidential elections in Wisconsin were decided by less than one percentage point. The races for the U.S. Senate seat haven’t been all that close – Baldwin won her first race by nearly 6 points in 2012 and by nearly 11 points in 2018. But in 2022, Johnson won a third term by just one point.

The Baldwin race is crucial for Democrats, who are defending 23 Senate seats, including three held by independents who are aligned with Democrats clinging to a 51-49 majority. By comparison, Republicans hope to retain just 11 seats in their column.

Baldwin said she is following the same strategy as her previous campaigns, traveling to both red and blue parts of the state to promote her record of fighting for Wisconsin farmers and the middle class. This week alone, she planned to be in every major media market in the state.

To bolster her bipartisan confidence, Baldwin received the support of the conservative Wisconsin Farm Bureau for her work on behalf of the state’s agricultural and dairy industries. In doing so, she became the first Democratic candidate in a statewide race to win it in more than 20 years.

Baldwin has attacked Hovde as a quixotic millionaire who aims to cut Social Security and Medicare, end the Affordable Care Act and support a nationwide ban on abortion. The ads focused on Hovde’s role as CEO of H Bancorp and its main subsidiary, Utah-based Sunwest Bank, as well as the fact that he owns a $7 million estate in Laguna Beach, California.

Hovde was born in Madison, owns a home there, and insists he has never had a full-time residence in California.

She also criticizes him for past statements opposing abortion rights and his support for returning the federal budget to 2019 levels, which Democrats say would lead to massive cuts to popular programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and Veterans benefits will result.

Hovde says Baldwin distorted his positions. On Social Security, for example, Hovde said that he only supports raising the retirement age to preserve benefits for people in their 40s or younger, and that he doesn’t want to take away benefits from older people, as a Baldwin TV ad claims becomes.

Hovde has softened his position on abortion since his first Senate run in 2012, which Baldwin used in an ad. Hovde now says he wouldn’t vote for a federal ban and that the matter should be left to the states.

Hovde portrays Baldwin, who has been in office for nearly 40 years, as a career politician who hasn’t done enough to secure the border or support the economy. He accuses her of avoiding voters by only agreeing to a single debate, which is to be broadcast live on Friday evening.

“I will continue to focus on interacting with everyone and answering their questions,” Hovde said last week, criticizing Baldwin for only agreeing to debate. “I will never run away from difficult questions.”

If Hovde wins, Wisconsin will be represented by two Republicans in the Senate for the first time since 1957. However, Republicans would have to overcome Democratic momentum that has seen their candidates win 14 of the last 17 statewide elections.

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Elections editor Amelia Thomson DeVeaux and Leah Askarinam of the AP Decision Desk contributed from Washington.