First Bets: Early picks for NFL Week 7

Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season could be crucial for several teams around the league. The week begins with the Denver Broncos traveling to Louisiana to take on the New Orleans Saints on “Thursday Night Football.” Sunday’s schedule includes 12 games, starting with the New England Patriots’ game against the Jacksonville Jaguars from London, England.

The highlight of the week may be a Super Bowl LVIII rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Sunday night’s game.

Week 7 concludes with a Monday Night Football doubleheader featuring the Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+) and the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals (8:45 p.m. ET, ESPN+) .

Our team takes an early look at the Week 7 odds to find value before the lines move later in the week:

Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: New Orleans Saints-Denver Broncos under 37.5

Last week: Bengals -3.5 over Giants. Line closed at Bengals -4.5. The Bengals won 17-7

The number 37 is a key number when it comes to betting on NFL totals, so let’s anticipate the impending move and settle on 37.5 now, because I see that value being at 36.5 or lower. Since 2017, the Thursday night strike rate has been 40 or less at 20-7 under, a highly profitable strike rate of 74 percent. I know New Orleans just scored 51 points and 594 total yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but this Denver offense is a dink-and-dunk team that can’t stretch the field as far as the Buccaneers can. For those interested in the derivatives market, it is worth noting that Denver went scoreless in the first half in three of the six contests played this season.

Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

This is a dead zone spread between key numbers 4 and 6, so we’re buying it now before it turns into a full touchdown spread in the Rams’ favor. Why might it move LA’s way? Well, they’re coming off a bye and it’s entirely possible we get word this week that WR Cooper Kupp is ready to return to action. He could They are joined by one of the three starting-caliber offensive linemen, Jonah Jackson, Steve Avila and Joe Noteboom. LA is 1-4 to start the season, but aside from the Week 2 loss at Arizona, all games have come down to the last possession. The Raiders, on the other hand, have struggled with losses of 16 and 19 points so far in October. Get in now before the Rams become the bigger favorite.

Anita Marks’ first bet: Minnesota Vikings (-2) vs. Detroit Lions

Last week: Chargers-Broncos under 37. Line closed at 37.5. The Chargers won 23-16

The Lions defeated the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, holding Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense to nine points. However, Detroit lost its best defensive player, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, and is dealing with other significant injuries on defense. The Vikings have had a week off after a trip to London and are looking to remain undefeated at home. They had plenty of time to plan the game plan for this important divisional showdown. The line opened at -1/-1.5 across the market.

Seth Walder’s first bet: Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Last week: 49ers win the NFC West (-105). Current odds -225.

Heading into Sunday, the Cardinals had played the toughest team in the NFL (and then faced the Green Bay Packers), according to FPI. The Chargers, meanwhile, faced the 29th toughest schedule before facing the Denver Broncos. The bet here is that the stark contrast in opponents will affect the overall view of both teams. Plus, it’s pretty great to have an underdog at home that has been the better offensive team this season: Sunday Night Football. Arizona ranks 11th in offensive EPA per game, while the Chargers rank 20th.

Andre Snellings’ first bet: Washington Commanders (-7.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

Last week: Commanders-Ravens over 51.5 points. Line closed at 50.5. The Ravens won 30-23

The Commanders lost a tough one-score game to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, but still had a high performance against a really good team. The loss ended a streak of four straight wins, the last two of which were by a combined 49 points. The Panthers, on the other hand, had an outstanding performance in Week 3 when Andy Dalton replaced the injured Bryce Young, but were otherwise lightning fast in every game. Carolina lost their first two games by a total of 60 points and their last three games by a total of 54 points. None of the Panthers’ losses this season have been by fewer than 10 points, and only one of their losses has been by fewer than 18. The Panthers are allowing the most points in the NFL (33.8 PPG allowed, 32nd) while also being among the fewest points count (17.8 PPG, 27th). Meanwhile, the Commanders have one of the most productive offenses in the league with 29.7 PPG (T-2nd) and will play at home. This simply has all the hallmarks of a game where the commanders should win by double digits.

Pam Maldonado’s first bet: Texas Longhorns (-3.5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Last week: Colorado +5.5. Line closed at +3.5. Colorado won 31-28.

Texas may be the most complete team in the country. The Longhorns have an explosive offense, quarterback depth and a stifling defense. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are dealing with several serious injuries, including possible losses to linebacker Smael Mondon Jr., center Jared Wilson and offensive guard Tate Ratledge. These injuries could impact Georgia’s performance on both sides of the ball. While Georgia is certainly a strong opponent, they simply don’t have the depth to contain a top-tier Texas offense.