3 free agents the Orioles need to sign to come back stronger next year, 2 to avoid

The Baltimore Orioles scored a single run in 18 innings and were eliminated from the postseason by the upstart Kansas City Royals. After establishing themselves as baseball’s most exciting underdog story – a team of underpaid young people with limitless potential – the wheels of the narrative turn in the opposite direction.

The O’s have now lost four Wild Card games in a row with this group and their last ten postseason games since 2014. That’s the kind of dry spell that disrupts a fandom – especially when the team is so close to greatness. Baltimore has been a stunner in recent years, displaying all the talent needed to win a World Series, but failed to deliver in October.

It’s unclear what the future holds for this team. Baltimore’s farm system is still one of the best in baseball, and young talent is flowing through the pipeline at record rates. Jackson Holliday was highly inconsistent in his first taste of MLB action, but should become more stable with each passing year. Colton Cowser could win AL Rookie of the Year. Gunnar Henderson is an MVP candidate at 23 and he’s only getting better.

That’s not the last we’ve heard from Baltimore, but it’s clear that something needs to change. In theory, the new ownership should enable the front office to take an aggressive approach and build on the cheap, young talent on the roster with more expensive and established veterans.

However, that has never been the Orioles’ MO in free agency, and there are several influential incumbents that Baltimore may have difficulty retaining on the open market.

Here’s who the O’s need to sign to take the next step – and who the front office should strictly avoid.

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The Orioles’ primary focus will continue to be the pitching staff with Corbin Burnes expected to leave in free agency, but Baltimore’s offense has been completely anemic in the playoffs. For all of this lineup’s “untapped potential,” there isn’t much holding it together other than Henderson and Anthony Santander, the latter of whom is on the verge of becoming a free agent.

There is understandable fear when it comes to spending tons of money on a poor defensive first baseman on the wrong side of 30. Pete Alonso is destined for DH duties one day and the history of players in his line getting paid is…not great. Baltimore hasn’t had a free agent player in years, so breaking that spell on such a risky signing would be a significant risk.

All in all, Alonso is a top-notch hitter, one of the best power hitters of his generation. That’s something the O’s need, especially from a veteran with even a little demonstrable October experience. Alonso has been below his usual standards this season, hitting .240/.329/.459 slashes and 34 home runs. That would certainly be a boon for Baltimore’s offense, especially if Santander runs away.

Ryan Mountcastle hasn’t lived up to expectations this season, so there’s an opportunity for Alonso to take over the first base duties and thrive for one of the American League’s deepest and most talented teams. It seems like a matter of time before the O’s push it deep into October. Maybe Alonso can give them the boost they need.

When the Mets signed JD Martinez to a one-year deal in free agency, it felt like a bargain. Age obviously plays a factor with Martinez, but he drove in 103 runs last season, earning his fifth All-Star berth in six years. The 37-year-old campaign or not, this is an impressive production that threatened to take New York’s offense to the next level.

The Mets’ offense has been quite explosive over time, and it’s not that Martinez was a total failure – .235/.320/.406 with 16 homers in 434 ABs – but it turns out that the age factor is quite was significant. Martinez has struggled with injuries and the pop he once specialized in is no longer there. He did not notice any unnatural increase in K levels or a decrease in walks; He just can’t find the gaps or shoot over the fence like he used to.

Martinez likely has enough left in the tank for another rental and perhaps even an everyday role, but the O’s need to focus their resources on sustainable weapons. Martinez offers no offensive value, he’s just a DH and he’s clearly regressing. Baltimore doesn’t want to invest significant resources in a player who may not even be playable after the postseason.

The postseason jokes wrote themselves when Max Fried imploded again in October for the Atlanta Braves, but he’s a damn good pitcher. The O’s still need more talent in the starting lineup, even if Corbin Burnes re-signs. I’m skeptical that Baltimore will spend the money necessary to draft both Burnes and Fried, but we’re debating what the O’s are should Do. Spend money, win more games. It’s a simple formula.

Of course, Baltimore can’t spend indefinitely, but Fried is 30 years old and has a long prime window ahead of him. The hard-throwing left-hander was one of the few bright spots for an otherwise depressing Braves team, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 29 starts. Fried earned his second All-Star berth this summer and is a three-time Gold Glove winner on the mound to boot.

Switching between an elite right-hander in Burnes and a left-hander in Fried at the top of the rotation would be pure magic for this Os’ squad. A lack of pitching depth has plagued Baltimore on several occasions, including in the Game 2 loss to Kansas City when Zach Eflin lasted just four innings. Injuries have piled up this season, with Grayson Rodriguez, John Means and Kyle Bradish all missing significant time.

That means the O’s need contingencies. Fried is more than a contingency — he significantly boosts Baltimore’s standing in a victorious AL East, and the Braves may be more inclined than ever to let him walk after his postseason misstep.

The Mets pitching staff has been absolute dynamite across the board, and that includes 35-year-old Jose Quintana. In addition to his impressive career, Quintana was a model of reliability for New York. He appeared in 31 starts this season and posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The Orioles need starting pitching and would benefit from Quintana’s presence. There is no doubt about that.

Considering both impact and price, Quintana will appeal to many competitors this winter. He’s just not going to demand the same long-term money as someone five years younger than him. Someone like Max Fried. Quintana can probably be had for a good price on a one- or two-year contract. The risk is reduced.

So why should Baltimore stay away? In short, the O’s should aim higher. Quintana can absolutely help – this wouldn’t be considered a “bad” signing – but Baltimore can’t trust that Quintana, who has played on five teams in the last two years, will age with complete grace. He doesn’t have elite strikeout qualities and Quintana has generally performed at very good levels in his MLB career. He’s hardly ever unplayable, but Quintana isn’t the true second ace Baltimore needs (or first ace, depending on Burnes’ fate).

We’ve seen rising prospects try to bulk up in the rotation with aging veterans and pay the price (see: Cardinals, St. Louis). Baltimore should stay true to the youth movement and look for players who can deliver excellence over multiple years.

Don’t end with “duh,” but duh. The Orioles can’t pass up Corbin Burnes. There has been understandable controversy over the demise of Burnes’ patented sweeper in recent weeks, but he managed eight innings of one-run baseball against the Royals on Tuesday. Burnes was the elite, bankable postseason ace that Baltimore was missing a season ago. He just wasn’t getting any offensive support, so let’s talk about the future here.

Burnes could command $300 million in free agency, which is a lot for a pitcher who is nearing his 30th birthday and clearly has concerns about the effectiveness of his best pitch. But Burnes is on pace for his fifth straight top-10 finish in Cy Young voting. There simply hasn’t been a more reliable top starter in the last half decade. Maybe Burnes is at his peak and the next few years will mark the beginning of his decline, but Baltimore can’t afford to let Burnes go – especially without an incredibly talented replacement.

There’s a case to be made for letting Burnes walk if the price rises too high, but that’s only viable if someone like the aforementioned Max Fried or Sonny Gray comes back in return. And even then, I’d rather have two aces than one. Most of these postseason heavyweights harness the power of two elite starters; Just ask the royals.

Burnes has done enough over the years to earn a big paycheck when in doubt. The Orioles are starting to hit their stride under new ownership, but Burnes’ free agency will be a real test of how committed Baltimore is to winning.