Michigan State vs. Oregon Early Leans & Picks – College Football Week 6

After playing its first Big Ten conference game against old Pac-12 rival UCLA last week, Oregon welcomes its first new conference opponent to Autzen Stadium: Michigan State travels to Eugene in Week 6.

In my Michigan State vs. Oregon predictions, I expect the Ducks to take care of business at home against a struggling Spartans team.

Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, October 5th.

Michigan State vs. Oregon predictions

Early spread lean
Oregon -24.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

It wasn’t as dominant a start to the season as most Oregon fans had hoped, but the Ducks are firmly in College Football Playoff position heading into their Week 6 game against Michigan State.

After back-to-back Power 4 wins in which Dan Lanning’s defense looked much better, the Spartans could be in for a tough afternoon at Autzen Stadium.

It’s clear that under new head coach Jonathan Smith, Michigan State is still several years away from competing with the Big Ten’s best.

The Spartans are coming off a 38-7 loss to Ohio State, where they totaled just 246 yards and turned the ball over three times.

I think their West Coast road trip could end with a similar result. The Ducks’ defensive line is loaded with NFL talent like Jordan Burch, Matayo Uiagalelei and Derrick Harmon.

They should be able to pressure QB Aidan Chiles and force him to make mistakes. According to PFF, the Oregon State transfer leads the Power 4 in highest turnover games (15).

With Chiles and this offense constantly struggling to move the ball against a strong defense, I think they would be happy to get more than 13 points.

That means that in a worst-case scenario, Oregon would have to put up 38 points to cover the spread, something the Ducks are certainly capable of doing with the efficiency this offense has shown in recent weeks.

Oregon is fourth in the country in SP+ on offense and Dillon Gabriel seems to be getting better with every start for the Ducks. He leads the country in adjusted completion percentage (88.7%) and has just two turnover games this season.

With the offensive line looking stronger after a slow start, Gabriel should have plenty of time to find Tez Johnson or Traeshon Holden to make big plays. And the running game might be even better, as Jordan James ranks 16th nationally in runs of 10 yards or more (14).

Even if Oregon’s offense is off to a questionable start, Michigan State simply lacks the offensive talent to take advantage.

Early over/under lean
Under 52.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Michigan State’s offense has been among the worst in the Power 4 this season. It ranks 104th in points per game (21.8) and Chiles has more interceptions (8) than touchdown passes (5).

This offense does not have a reliable passing attack, which is good news for the Under. Since Oregon is expected to blow the Spartans out of the field, there isn’t much concern about garbage timing from Michigan State.

With Chiles under center, the Spartans are just 98th in EPA per dropback, and the Ducks should expose him. Oregon ranks eighth in the country in EPA per defensive dropback and has a top cornerback in Jabbar Muhammad capable of containing freshman phenom Nick Marsh.

Chile’s struggles are a big reason why Michigan State prefers to run the ball, which keeps the clock running and helps this under. And although MSU is more effective on the ground, Oregon holds opponents to just 112 rushing yards per game behind a defense that ranks 32nd in SP+.

Amazingly, Michigan State’s defense actually performs better, ranking 22nd in SP+. That’s why I’m not afraid of Oregon putting out a 50 burger.

In fact, the Ducks have only scored 36 points per game so far and will likely stay at that level in this game. While they rank fifth in EPA per rush on offense, the Spartans allow just 114.4 yards per game and rank 20th in EPA per rush on defense.

It also helps that Oregon will likely get up early and just try to win the time of possession battle and run out the time. I expect the Ducks to win 38-10.

Live odds Michigan State vs. Oregon

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