The Patriots’ QB dilemma: Determining optimal windows for New England to have Drake Maye replace Jacoby Brissett

For the fourth straight year, the New England Patriots finished 1-3 in the first month of the year. This recent run suggests optimism that Foxborough is unraveling by the minute, especially as the offense continues to look like one of, if not the worst unit in the league. The last two weeks have been particularly difficult for New England, as they were outscored 54-16 and struggled even more than that margin suggests.

The Patriots’ 449 total passing yards are their fewest in four games since 1987. They currently rank 30th in the league with 4.0 yards per game and red zone efficiency (touchdowns on just 36.3% of trips). League.

The most recent loss came at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers, where starter Jacoby Brissett threw for 168 yards, a touchdown and a game-winning pick-6 early in the second quarter. And that makes people wonder if a quarterback change is on the horizon.

“At this point, Jacoby is our starter,” first-year head coach Jerod Mayo said Sunday after the game. Upon seeing the feature film, Mayo reiterated that stance Monday during his weekly radio appearance on WEEI’s “The Greg Hill Show” and speaking to reporters.

“Jacoby is 100% our starter,” Mayo told reporters. “He is 100% our regular player and that is how we will see the future.”

This also comes as NFL Media reported earlier Sunday that the Patriots have not yet begun the process of preparing Drake Maye, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, as a starter. Currently Maye gets about 30% of the first team representatives in practice.

It’s only a matter of time before New England finally gives Maye the keys to the offense and makes the transition to their rookie. However, when this will actually be the case remains a mystery. Since the summer, there has been a strong argument that the Patriots should wait as long as possible to push Maye forward as QB1, given the roster limitations at that position.

However, let’s look at some windows where a change might make sense.

Window #1: Week 5 vs. Dolphins

While unlikely given Mayo’s comments on Monday, a move this week would give Maye a solid landing spot for his first NFL start. This game is scheduled to be played in Foxborough so Maye will have the home atmosphere to support him. Meanwhile, the Patriots also find their opponent in a difficult situation. The Miami Dolphins are in a quarterback conundrum of their own, with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) on injured reserve and Tyler Huntley starting in Week 4. Add to that the fact that Miami only plays a short week after Monday night’s substitution, and that’s as gentle an opening start as you could probably hope for. Again, this is unlikely given the bosses’ recent statements, but still noteworthy.

Window #2: Week 7 vs. Jaguars (in London)

This is one of the most important dates I’ve had my eye on since the summer for Maye’s potential first start. This is an international game in London that would provide a neutral field for the rookie quarterback to break into the league as a starter. The Jaguars also have uncertainty after starting the year 0-4, with players like Doug Pederson and other members of the organization in the hot seat. While those are attractive aspects of this landing spot, what stands out even more is Jacksonville’s inability to target the quarterback. In this first month, the Jaguars rank 24th in pressure rate and 28th in sack rate. Since the Patriots have a weak offensive line, it would be a huge advantage for Maye to play against an opponent that has difficulty putting pressure on the quarterback and would prevent him from running for his life out of the gate.

Optimal window: Week 15 vs. Cardinals

New England should wait as long as possible to start Maye. Seeing players like Jayden Daniels in Washington and even Caleb Williams in Chicago show off his potential will naturally create a desire throughout the fanbase to see what their rookie quarterback is capable of. However, because of the way this team is currently constructed, it makes no sense to throw Maye to the wolves. In fact, it could do more harm than good in the long run.

New England has a late bye in Week 14 this season, providing an ideal spot for the move. New England can use this week to further advance Maye to start in Arizona against the Cardinals and play the final month of the year to prepare for 2025. While things can change as the season progresses, Arizona ranks 29th in pressure rate through the first month, so that’s another attractive aspect of choosing this spot for Maye to advance to QB1 status.