Pegula’s big chance; Outsiders want to disrupt the field

No.6 and No.7. Seeds Emma Navarro and Barbora Krejcikova lost their opening matches at the China Open. World No. 1 Iga Swiatek, along with Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins, didn’t even make it to Beijing.

Hey, Jessica Pegula, do you feel an opening?

“Yes,” she said a few days ago. “Because Iga and a lot of top players have dropped out, this is an opportunity for other girls who may not be ranked as high to get the points that they won’t get.

“We’ve seen several times where people came from nothing and did really well.”

Soon after, perhaps because she initiated it, Pegula found herself in a wild tiebreaker with No. 32 Veronika Kudermetova. In the end, Pegula survived 6-7 (9), 6-1, 6-2, but this chaos makes the second week of the China Open, with 16 players remaining, a thrilling experience.

Beijing: scores | Order of play | Pulls

With the WTA Finals in Riyadh just a month away, the fight for qualification is now officially on. There are a number of players in the mix who will take heart from recent history.

Three years ago, Anet Kontaveit was ranked 30th when the game began in Ostrava on September 20th. She won the title there without losing a set, with victories over Paula Badosa, Belinda Bencic, Petra Kvitova and Maria Sakkari. Kontaveit reached the quarterfinals in the COVID-delayed Indian Wells and then won back-to-back titles in Moscow and Cluj-Napoca. That put her in 9th place, and when Ashleigh Barty withdrew she was in the field in Guadalajara.

In 2023, Caroline Garcia was ranked No. 48 in mid-July and went on a dizzying summer run: she took the crown in Warsaw, qualified in Cincinnati, won the title and reached the semifinals at the US Open before losing to Ons Jabeur. Garcia became champion in Fort Worth at the end of the year.

So even at this late date, anything is possible. Here are some other things to watch out for in Week 2 of the China Open.

The PIF race to the WTA Finals is… completely open

OK, a quick summary: Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka are already there and Krejcikova has a great chance as Wimbledon champion. Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff have a good chance of qualifying for Riyadh. Navarro and Collins, currently No. 7 and No. 8, are vulnerable.

Here, in order, are the next five players still alive in the fourth round of the China Open: Zheng Qinwen, Anna Kalinskaya, Paula Badosa, Madison Keys and Mirra Andreeva. With a good run here and/or in Wuhan the following week, either of them could advance into contention.

Three for the show

While Tuesday’s Round of 16 between No. 4 seed Coco Gauff and unseeded Naomi Osaka is the main event, we’re also looking forward to three exciting all-seeded games:

No. 2 Jessica Pegula vs. No. 15 Paula Badosa: It’s the world No. 3 against the former No. 2. Pegula has a 3-0 head-to-head lead, but in the last meeting – the most recent Semifinals in Cincinnati – it was about three sets.

No. 5 Zheng Qinwen vs. No. 34 Amanda Anisimiova: Zheng defeated Nadia Podoroska 6-3, 6-2, while Anisimova won 7-6 (1), 6-4 against No. 9 Daria Kasatkina. Their only previous meeting, in the first round of the 2024 US Open, went to Zheng.

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 18 Madison Keys: Sabalenka won 6-2, 6-2 over Ashlyn Krueger and Keys defeated No. 13 Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-3, 6-3. Sabalenka has won three of her four games but Keys is in exceptional form.

The Longshots

Zhang Shuai entered the China Open ranked No. 595 in the PIF WTA rankings, riding an incredible 24-match losing streak. She has now won three times in a row and will face No. 23 seed Magdalena Frech for a place in the quarterfinals.

“The big difference for me is the space, the surface, completely different,” Zhang said. “At the China Open, I think of this place like Philippe Chatrier for Rafa. When I’m on this pitch, I have everything. Since I grew up in Tianjin, Beijing, I have been playing this hard court every day for more than 20 years.”

The wildcard from China is the third player, alongside Osaka and Angelique Kerber, to be ranked outside the top 500 this season and to have reached the fourth round of a WTA 1000.

Meanwhile, Yuliia Starodubtseva, a 24-year-old Ukrainian, has been living on the sidelines of her career all season. She managed to qualify for all four Grand Slams in singles.

“To be honest, it feels like you’re entering a new lifestyle,” she said at Roland Garros. “Because you are currently in the last 128 in the world. You’re in the tournament and you’re playing in the same draw with the best players.”

And now the 115th ranked player is in the last 16 at the China Open – her first such result at a WTA 1000 event. She defeated Laura Siegemund, Katerina Siniakova and Elina Avanesyan.

Next up for Zhang: No. 10 Anna Kalinskaya.

Here comes Karolina Muchova (again)

The 28-year-old from the Czech Republic is healthy again – and is terrorizing his opponents. She won five straight matches at the US Open before facing Pegula in the semifinals.

Muchova wasn’t sure whether her newfound confidence would carry the world to Asia, but look at her three games in Beijing. She defeated:

• Anna Blinkova 6-1, 6-1 in 62 minutes
• Yuan Yafan 6-3, 6-1
• Jaqueline Cristian 6-1, 6-3

Her fourth-round opponent, Cristina Bucsa, is ranked 79th. They have never played before.

Another Italian job?

The top seeded team of Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe are the ones to beat in doubles, but watch out for the pesky Italians.

Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini, the gold medalists in Paris, are the No. 5 seeds — and the only team in the field to have reached the Olympic podium. The draw offers some opportunities as No. 2 seeds Siniakova and Taylor Townsend (to Lyudmyla Kichenok and Marta Kostyuk) and No. 3 seeds Caroline Dolehide and Desirae Krawczyk (Beatriz Haddad Maia and Laura Siegemund) lost.

Red, white and not so blue

Four players from the United States are in the fourth round – 25 percent of survivors: No. 2 Jessica Pegula, No. 4 Coco Gauff, No. 18 Madison Keys and No. 34 Amanda Anisimova.

Four other countries, including China and Poland, have two players in the Sweet 16.