Russia surrounds a key ‘fortress city’ in southern Donbass as battlefield crises mount for Ukraine – Meduza

Like our previous reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of recent developments on the battlefield using open source information. Meduza has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the outset, and our detailed military analysis is part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we strongly oppose.

Our map is based solely on open source photos and videos, mostly posted on social media by eyewitnesses. We collect available evidence and determine their geolocation markers. We only add the photos and videos that clarify this process. Meduza does not attempt to follow the conflict in real time; The data shown on the map is usually at least 48 hours old.

Important updates as of September 28, 2024

The Russian attack on Vuhledar – the Ukrainian military’s “fortress city” in southern Donbass – has begun to overshadow developments elsewhere on the front in recent days. While the outcome of the battle seems all but certain (the city is almost surrounded, the remaining defenders are unable to deliver sufficient supplies, and the only remaining road they could leave is under fire), new ones are brewing Crises for Ukraine around Pokrovsk, Selydove, Toretsk and Kupyansk. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are conducting their own offensive operations in Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region and in the Glushkovsky district in Russia’s Kursk region.

Vuhledar

• Russian troops have advanced from the northeast towards Wuhledar and penetrated the high-rise district on the outskirts. The situation inside the city is still unclear, as is the actual number of Ukrainian soldiers remaining there. However, a threatening scenario is emerging for the AFU in the surrounding areas.
• Russian forces are approaching the city from the west – from the direction of the recently captured village of Prechystivka – and cutting off the remaining Ukrainian troops there from their supply lines.

• The only road in the area still accessible to Ukrainian troops (the Vuhledar-Bohoyavlenka highway) is constantly under attack from drones and artillery. Russian forces may also be able to attack it with short-range anti-tank missiles, which require a direct line of sight to the target.
• Ukraine’s main forces have already retreated relatively far from the city, taking positions west of the Russian-controlled Pivdennodonbaska coal mine and near the town of Novoukrainka.

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• Even if the Ukrainian garrison of Wuhledar decides to leave the city immediately, it will likely have to fight its way northwest.
• Ukrainian military experts call on the AFU leadership not to delay its decision to evacuate the garrison. However, for reasons that are still unclear, Ukraine’s leadership decided instead to replace the command of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which has been defending Vuhledar for almost three years.

Selydove and Kurakhove

• Another crisis is developing in the hinterland of the Ukrainian Vuhledar group. Russian forces have decided not to launch a frontal attack on the city of Selydove and are instead maneuvering it from the south. They have captured the city of Ukrainsk and are now fighting for control of the nearby villages Hirnyk and Tsukuryne.
• If Russian troops make a breakthrough in this area, they could reach the western edge of the Kurakhove reservoir and threaten the city of Kurakhove – Ukraine’s main logistics hub for southern Donbas. Meanwhile, another Russian group has already advanced close to the eastern edge of the reservoir.

Pokrovsk

• After a break in operations lasting several weeks, the Russian armed forces have resumed their offensive against Pokrovsk and its satellite cities. After taking Novohrodivka and most of Hrodivka, they are now trying to gain control of the villages in between.
• Russian advance units were spotted in the village of Mykolaivka. On the other side of this village lie the outskirts of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which form the core of the Pokrovsk urban area.

Toretsk

• Russian troops are making slow progress in the center of Toretsk, where fierce battles are raging for control of the high-rise district.
• Ukraine’s relatively successful defense efforts in the city center may have proven in vain: Russian forces have broken through to Toretsk from the west and are approaching from the direction of the village of Niu-York. The city’s defenses may not be able to withstand the attacks of this additional front.

Kupyansk

• Russian forces are close to achieving the main goal of their months-long offensive in the Kupiansk area. Their advance units are only two to three kilometers (1.2–1.8 miles) from the Oskil River and its crossings, as well as the road that runs along the river’s eastern bank and connects Ukrainian forces east and south of Kupiansk.

• If Russian forces reach the Oskil River, Ukraine’s supply situation will become more difficult, although not catastrophic: the AFU will have time and resources to defend not just one, but several bridgeheads along the eastern bank, including one near Kupyansk and one near Borova. This is probably why the Ukrainian leadership has paid less attention to this sector.
• Russian troops are trying to push further south – around Makiivka and Nevske – but are still a long way from Oskil.

Vovchansk

• After months of fighting, Ukrainian forces have driven out a Russian army unit from the high-rise complex of the Vovchansk aggregates plant. This could ease the supply situation for the Ukrainian armed forces in the city center on the northern bank of the Vovcha, as the facility is located right next to the crossing that the Ukrainian armed forces use for supplies.
• However, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to fully liberate Vovchansk in the near future, even if the AFU still has large troops stationed in the city.

Russia’s Kursk region

• A strong Ukrainian formation remains active in the Kursk region. But although Ukraine has managed to repel the Russian offensive on Sudzha from the west, its own offensive operations are stalling: in recent weeks, the Ukrainian brigades sent across the border to advance towards the district center of Glushkovo, did not advance to the village of Veseloe, where Russian forces – withdrawn from the main thrust of the Russian offensive on Sudzha – have established a solid defense.

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With manpower running low on both sides, Russia is targeting Ukraine’s supply lines in the Donbass and Kursk region

With manpower running low on both sides, Russia is targeting Ukraine’s supply lines in the Donbass and Kursk region